In an interview with German business daily Handelsblatt, the chairman of European aerospace and defense group Airbus warned the continent needs to arm itself now that it’s likely the United States will not honor its obligations under NATO’s Article 5 common defense clause. 

“There are strong indications that Russia is preparing an attack on NATO’s eastern flank,” René Obermann told the newspaper on Monday, adding that Putin will not likely wait until Europe has enough time to build up its own sovereign capabilities for deterrence before striking.

“Putin sees NATO as increasingly weakened, because Trump’s solidarity with Europe is shaky, to put it politely,” he said.

Obermann argues the Russian dictator has placed his country’s economy on a wartime footing with a fiscally unsustainable 10% of gross domestic product diverted to its military, according to Obermann. That’s five times the NATO minimum target, and Putin also plans to mobilize 1.5 million soldiers—the world’s second largest standing army after China. 

With so much already invested, ending his expansionist campaign and returning to peace risks the one thing Putin appears to fear most—political upheaval. That may be one reason why a joint military exercise is planned for this year in Russia’s neighboring client state of Belarus.

“That is reminiscent of the events leading up to the Ukraine invasion. Furthermore, the internal pressure [in Russia] to deliver new victories through military conquest likely will grow,” he said.

The Airbus chairman suspects that, much like Putin’s invasion of Crimea in 2014, plans would involve another ethnic enclave—this time Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea, which forms Russia’s westernmost territory. 

Putin may aspire to build a strategic land bridge to the historic Hanseatic port city via its client state of Belarus after the former was cut off from Russia proper following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

This would occur by seizing what’s known as the Suwałki Gap, a corridor along the Polish border with Lithuania that separates the Kaliningrad oblast (region) from Belarus.

A spokesperson for NATO did not respond by press time to Fortune’s request for comment.

‘Grossly negligent’ if Europe does not prepare for U.S. withdrawal

Obermann argued in favor of a pragmatic approach to security, including sticking to Germany’s contractual plans to acquire Lockheed Martin’s F-35 stealth fighter jet despite other allies now considering canceling their purchase. 

He wants Europe to cooperate with Americans where necessary, for example in the stationing of Tomahawk cruise missiles capable of striking distant targets in Russia, while prioritizing a deterrence strategy of its own complete with tactical nuclear weapons provided by the French.

But the Trump administration has fostered a split in the transatlantic alliance and has openly displayed scorn for its allies on several occasions. Just this week, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth wrote to Vice President JD Vance in texts accidentally leaked: “I fully share your loathing of European freeloading. It’s pathetic.” 

Trump’s open courtship of Russia prompted one billionaire heiress to the Walmart fortune, Christy Walton, to take to the New York Times in defense of long-standing American principles like the rule of law and loyalty to its allies. 

“It would be grossly negligent if we did not prepare for the scenario that the U.S.A. either partially or fully withdraws its forces,” said Obermann.

Airbus generated a combined €13.4 billion in 2024 across its defense and military helicopter operations, making it a midsize European player, smaller than a Thales or Leonardo, but larger than Rheinmetall and Saab. By comparison, Obermann’s company generates €50.6 billion from its civilian aerospace division through the sale of models like the Airbus A320, the airline industry’s narrow-body workhorse.