• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia
Tech

Elon Musk bet me $1 million the U.S. would not see 35,000 cases of Covid—then turned on me when it happened, says Sam Harris

By
Beatrice Nolan
Beatrice Nolan
Tech Reporter
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Beatrice Nolan
Beatrice Nolan
Tech Reporter
Down Arrow Button Icon
January 16, 2025, 11:22 AM ET
Elon Musk, chief executive officer of Tesla departs court in 2023.
Elon Musk, chief executive officer of Tesla, departs court in 2023.Benjamin Fanjoy/Bloomberg via Getty Images
  • Podcaster Sam Harris claims his friendship with Elon Musk ended after a $1 million COVID-19 bet over U.S. case numbers.

Podcaster and neuroscientist Sam Harris claims Elon Musk once bet him $1 million that the U.S. wouldn’t see more than 35,000 cases of COVID-19.

Recommended Video

In an explosive Substack post titled “The Trouble With Elon Musk,” Harris detailed his fallout with his former friend, publishing texts exchanged during the coronavirus pandemic’s early days.

He cites one incident where the Tesla CEO bet him $1 million against a $1,000 bottle of tequila that the U.S. wouldn’t see as many as 35,000 cases of COVID-19.

Harris said he tried to up the bet to 3.5 million cases of COVID-19 at the time, but Musk accused him of “having lost [his] mind” and insisted on sticking with 35,000 cases.

After the CDC reported 35,000 deaths from COVID-19 a few weeks later, Harris said he texted Musk: “Is (35,000 deaths + 600,000 cases) > 35,000 cases?”

The text went unanswered, according to Harris, who cites the message as the end of their years-long friendship.

“Let this be a cautionary tale for any of Elon’s friends who might be tempted to tell the great man something he doesn’t want to hear,” Harris said in the post.

Musk publicly criticized the early concerns surrounding COVID-19 in 2020, stating in an X post, “The coronavirus panic is dumb.”

As the pandemic spread, he became increasingly skeptical of COVID-19 vaccines and also attacked former chief medical advisor to the President of the United States, Anthony Fauci, who oversaw the country’s response to the pandemic.

In December 2022, Musk called for Fauci’s prosecution, posting on X: “My pronouns are Prosecute/Fauci.”

Representatives for Musk did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Fortune.

Harris and Musk: Friends to Foes

Harris and Musk were friends for years before the alleged fallout.

In his Substack post, Harris said he knew Musk in 2008 when Tesla was struggling to make payroll, and Musk was “living off loans from his friends Larry [Page] and Sergey [Brin].”

He praised Musk as a remarkable person who was “probably the most likely to remain a world-historical figure” but also “the most likely to squander his ample opportunities to live a happy life, ruin his reputation and most important relationships, and produce lasting harm across the globe.”

Over the past few years, the two have traded public barbs.

Musk has attacked Harris on X, calling him “mentally ill” and “an utter idiot.” Harris has called the billionaire a bully and alleged his former pal is addicted to social media.

In an episode of “The Bulwark” podcast released in November last year, Harris said the billionaire was “snorting ketamine and tweeting at all hours of the day and night.”

Harris criticized Musk’s social media use again in the recent post.

“Any dispassionate observer of Elon’s behavior on Twitter/X can see that there is something seriously wrong with his moral compass, if not his perception of reality,” he said.

Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation Summit May 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.
About the Author
By Beatrice NolanTech Reporter
Twitter icon

Beatrice Nolan is a tech reporter on Fortune’s AI team, covering artificial intelligence and emerging technologies and their impact on work, industry, and culture. She's based in Fortune's London office and holds a bachelor’s degree in English from the University of York. You can reach her securely via Signal at beatricenolan.08

See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Tech

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Tech

Meta’s threat to quit New Mexico ‘is showing the world how little it cares about child safety,’ AG says
LawMeta
Meta’s threat to quit New Mexico ‘is showing the world how little it cares about child safety,’ AG says
By Catherina GioinoApril 30, 2026
1 hour ago
Meta's Hyperion data-center site in Northeastern Louisiana.
NewslettersEye on AI
Big Tech will spend nearly $700 billion on AI this year. No one knows where the buildout ends
By Sharon GoldmanApril 30, 2026
5 hours ago
Financial analyst working at a computer
Personal FinancePersonal Finance Evergreen
AI’s entry-level hiring nightmare is another gift to boomers’ retirement plans
By Catherina GioinoApril 30, 2026
6 hours ago
TOPSHOT - Alphabet Inc. and Google CEO Sundar Pichai speaks during the inauguration of a Google Artificial Intelligence (AI) hub in Paris on February 15, 2024. (Photo by ALAIN JOCARD / AFP via Getty Images)
AIGoogle
Google and Amazon’s biggest profit driver last quarter was their Anthropic stakes—which they haven’t sold
By Eva RoytburgApril 30, 2026
6 hours ago
Elon Musk arrives at the courthouse during his trial against OpenAI
CryptoElon Musk
Elon Musk likes Bitcoin—but he just told a jury most crypto coins are scams
By Jack KubinecApril 30, 2026
8 hours ago
Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., at the Norges Bank Investment Management annual investment conference in Oslo, Norway, on Tuesday, April 28, 2026.
EconomyJamie Dimon
For years, the risk Jamie Dimon was most concerned about was geopolitics. His answer has shifted
By Eleanor PringleApril 30, 2026
9 hours ago

Most Popular

Apple cofounder Ronald Wayne—whose stake would be worth up to $400 billion had he not sold it in 1976—says that at 91, he has no regrets
Success
Apple cofounder Ronald Wayne—whose stake would be worth up to $400 billion had he not sold it in 1976—says that at 91, he has no regrets
By Preston ForeApril 27, 2026
3 days ago
Google Cloud revenue is now 18% of Alphabet's business. Is this the beginning of the end of Google's search identity?
Big Tech
Google Cloud revenue is now 18% of Alphabet's business. Is this the beginning of the end of Google's search identity?
By Alexei OreskovicApril 29, 2026
22 hours ago
‘They left me no choice’: Powell isn’t going anywhere—blocking Trump from another Fed appointee
Banking
‘They left me no choice’: Powell isn’t going anywhere—blocking Trump from another Fed appointee
By Eva RoytburgApril 29, 2026
1 day ago
Jamie Dimon gets candid about national debt: ‘There will be a bond crisis, and then we’ll have to deal with it’
Economy
Jamie Dimon gets candid about national debt: ‘There will be a bond crisis, and then we’ll have to deal with it’
By Eleanor PringleApril 29, 2026
2 days ago
‘The cost of compute is far beyond the costs of the employees’: Nvidia executive says right now AI is more expensive than paying human workers
AI
‘The cost of compute is far beyond the costs of the employees’: Nvidia executive says right now AI is more expensive than paying human workers
By Sasha RogelbergApril 28, 2026
3 days ago
With no end in sight, Trump considers new options in Iran war—including the ‘Dark Eagle’ hypersonic missile
Big Tech
With no end in sight, Trump considers new options in Iran war—including the ‘Dark Eagle’ hypersonic missile
By Jim EdwardsApril 30, 2026
13 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.