Donald Trump’s triumphant return to the White House alongside a GOP sweep of Congress has reignited optimism among C-suite executives at the world’s largest companies.
Emboldened by promises of lower taxes and swift deregulation, CEOs are setting their sights on further growth. Not even their demonstrable concerns about tariffs, the climate crisis, and geopolitical instability are dampening bullish spirits after voters last month awarded business-friendly Republicans the keys to all branches of the federal government.
That is the clear result of the latest survey by Fortune and Deloitte, which polled leaders from the Fortune 500, Fortune Global 500, and other top companies in the days following the election.
The big picture
Trump’s swift and decisive victory put to bed both market uncertainty over a contested election as well as the likelihood of legislative deadlock. This may help explain why the survey data shows confidence is soaring in the immediate aftermath of the Nov. 5 vote.
The share of CEOs who now describe themselves as “optimistic” or “very optimistic” about the global economy in the next 12 months surged to 42% this autumn—up sharply from 29% in the most recent summer survey and just 7% a year ago.
The numbers to know
42% … of CEOs are “optimistic” or “very optimistic” about the global economy, up sharply from 29% just this summer.
66% … of CEOs smell opportunity in the area of taxes and AI/generative AI adoption, the two most common responses.
47% … of CEOs are investing heavily in artificial intelligence, compared to 20% who placed investments in the technology at the bottom of their list.
73% … of CEOs consider international trade and tariffs a risk after Trump vowed to implement protectionist policies. Just 7% view them as an opportunity.
63% … of CEOs are worried about geopolitical instability, making it the second most cited risk post-election.
5% … of CEOs rank climate and sustainability as one of their top three investment priorities, even though 62% also go on to name it a risk.
Expanding into new areas favored over transforming core operations
According to the Fall 2024 survey results, executives aren’t just bullish about the overall economy. Confidence within their respective industries has also climbed, with 61% of CEOs feeling “optimistic” or “very optimistic” about the coming year, compared to 48% just this summer.
Optimism about their own companies’ future was even higher, at 84%. This includes 29% of CEOs who are “very optimistic”, an 11-percentage-point improvement over last quarter’s survey. Responses indicate that a broad range of business-related policy issues gives executives hope for the future.
With Trump returning to the Oval Office, 62% anticipate further opportunities for growth. Moving forward, 58% and 41% of CEOs now also view access to credit and consumer confidence as an opportunity, rather than a risk. That goes likewise for taxes and regulations, with 66% and 49%, respectively.
When asked to name their top three investment priorities, 88% of CEOs plan to fund business growth including everything from new products and services to market innovations—only 2% report they will hold back. That takes clear precedence over the second most popular answer: transformation of their core business.
Bullish on AI amid prominent backing from Silicon Valley
What’s more, 48% of CEOs spot opportunities in the area of tech policy, and 66% in the adoption of artificial intelligence and Generative AI specifically.
Silicon Valley has already been quick to embrace the incoming administration. Trump named Tesla CEO and xAI founder Elon Musk one of his two government efficiency czars, tasked with removing red tape that might handicap corporate America. Venture capitalist David Sacks will meanwhile be in charge of the President-elect’s AI and crypto policies.
Accordingly, 47% of CEOs are investing heavily in AI; just 20% placed such investments at the bottom of their list. By comparison, other emerging technologies notably fell by the wayside. Sixty-eight percent of CEOs responded by saying they are not prioritizing investment in once promising fields such as the blockchain, the metaverse and quantum computing.
On the labor market, CEOs are more divided. Trump’s plans for mass deportations of undocumented migrants could in theory place a strain on industries reliant on foreign workers, such as agriculture and manufacturing. Twenty-eight percent of CEOs lean towards viewing the area of labor, employment and workforce as an opportunity, while 26% are more concerned about the related risks—the other half roughly speaking are neutral. This relatively even split, indicative of uncertainty, could prove a problem going forward. Fifty-four percent of CEOs rank talent acquisition/transformation among their top three priorities.
Tariffs and geopolitical concerns
There are a few red flags in the data, however. No less than 73% of CEOs worry international trade and tariffs pose a risk—just 7% spot opportunities. Trump’s threat to hike duties on imported foreign goods is a tactic he has employed as leverage to bargain for concessions from partners. But if he follows through, as he did with steel tariffs, it may prompt other countries to engage in an escalating, tit-for-tat trade conflict with the United States harmful to global commerce.
With hot wars still raging in Ukraine and the Middle East, 63% of CEOs also signal they see risks arising from geopolitical instability. The response is prescient: shortly after the poll, rebels overthrew the Kremlin-backed Assad regime in Syria after the family ruled uninterrupted for more than half a century.
Another concern in the C-suite is related to health care, a chief plank in Trump’s domestic agenda. Already once in 2017 he attempted to repeal Obama’s Affordable Care Act, and the President-elect is widely expected to try again. Food and drug industries will likely be materially affected by the appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Secretary for Health and Human Services, should the controversial anti-vaxxer be confirmed.
While 39% of CEOs are neutral on health care under the incoming administration, the rest of CEOs lean toward pessimism. Forty percent of CEOs identify health care as a business risk and only 22% see an opportunity.
Environmental and social issues lose C-suite support
Trump’s second term will likely result in a shift away from the outgoing administration’s focus on sourcing clean, renewable power towards exploiting the country’s abundant fossil fuels. Promising to “drill baby, drill,” Trump has nominated a climate change skeptic as his Secretary of Energy, fracking executive Chris Wright.
CEOs are responding to the changing political winds: only 5% place climate and sustainability among their top three priorities while 71% rank them at the very bottom of the scale. That makes this the least popular of any investment area polled. Paradoxically, that comes in spite of most CEOs (62%) considering climate change a risk to their business, with only 7% viewing it as an opportunity.
Trump’s Republican Party also pledges to dismantle diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs across the entire federal government, and his pick for White House deputy chief of staff for policy, Stephen Miller, leads a legal group known for suing corporations over DEI efforts.
Social equity initiatives are falling by the wayside as a consequence of America’s political shift towards the right. A clear majority of CEOs (61%) now relegate such investments to the bottom of their lists, with just 8% prioritizing it among their top three choices. Already, major names like Walmart, Ford, and Lowe’s have begun scaling back their DEI initiatives.
*Methodology: Fortune surveyed CEOs in collaboration with Deloitte between Nov. 11-19. A total of 141 responded to the survey, which was sent to the Fortune CEO Community. That includes chief executives from Fortune 500 and Global 500 companies as well as those attending Fortune conferences.
