Obituaries for OPEC have been prematurely written before, but the emergence of new producers outside of the oil cartel and the continued slowdown of China’s economy may be shifting the balance of power more decisively.
In the latest sign of weakness, crude oil prices fell even after OPEC and other oil-producing allies like Russia agreed on Thursday to extend their output curbs by three more months to April, adding to previous delays.
The OPEC+ alliance accounts for about half of the world’s oil production, but demand from top customer China remains weak as growth sputters. At the same time, non-OPEC countries like Canada, Brazil and Guyana have joined the U.S. as increasingly influential on global markets.
That means OPEC’s market power lately is “less than you would imagine,” U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources Geoffrey Pyatt told the Wall Street Journal ahead of the oil group’s meeting.
“In the world that I live in, the challenge as we think about strategy is, how does the United States think about its status as an energy superpower?” he added. “We don’t have to be so fussed about what OPEC or anybody else is doing, because we can focus on our own story.”
OPEC didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Powered by the shale revolution, the U.S. surpassed Russia as the world top oil producer in 2018 and even briefly edged out Saudi Arabia in 2019 as the world’s biggest oil exporter.
While shale companies have de-emphasized output growth in favor of cash flow and shareholder returns in recent years, U.S. production continues to set new records. And more is on the way. Output is expected to climb to 13.5 million barrels a day in 2025 from 13.2 million in 2024.
The U.S. shale boom has eroded OPEC’s grip on oil markets. Bank of America estimates that oil from the rest of the world, meaning outside OPEC and Russia, will control roughly 70% of the market by the first quarter of 2025, up from 60% just before the pandemic.
Meanwhile, some OPEC members have chafed under production curbs and have pumped more than their quotas allow. They’re adding more barrels to a global market that’s already showing signs of a glut.
If OPEC doesn’t cut output next year, supplies will exceed demand by more than 1 million barrels a day, according to the International Energy Agency.
Analysts at Bank of America have an even dimmer view for OPEC over the next several years. In a note on Friday, BofA estimated that by 2030, non-OPEC countries will boost production by about 3 million barrels per day and will grab 75% of the additional supply that the world will demand.
“In other words, only ~20% of OPEC+ spare capacity may be called upon this decade,” analysts said.
