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People underestimate AI the same way everyone underestimated steel in the 1800s, tech CEO says

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Natalie McCormick
Natalie McCormick
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By
Natalie McCormick
Natalie McCormick
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November 11, 2024, 3:10 PM ET
Zig Serafin looks away from camera with hand raised.
Zig Serafin, CEO of Qualtrics, speaks at Fortune's Global Forum conference in New York City on Monday. Michael O’Shea for Fortune

Our world is in the midst of an AI revolution—and as the technology matures, we will see how companies learn to utilize and grow with it. 

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Zig Serafin, CEO of management-software company Qualtrics, recounted an old saying at Fortune’s Global Forum conference in New York City on Monday. “We often end up overestimating what happens in the short run, and we end up significantly underestimating what happens in the long run. I think that is extremely true here,” he said. 

Serafin drew parallels between AI and the Industrial Revolution, as steel was growing in popularity as a building material. Although it had long been used in railroads, it took many decades for people to realize that steel could be used in buildings—now one of the most vital materials used today. 

“I think we are in a very similar stage at this point, where people see AI improve substantially, but the timelines would be significantly compressed. So we go from a five-year inflection point to a three-year inflection point,” he said. 

As different industries learn how to use the technology, Serafin hopes to see an ecosystem where companies will innovate, fine-tune, and build agents that will create a new world of opportunities, similar to that of the Industrial Revolution. 

In order to not squash the innovation opportunities that come with AI, Serafin warns governments against the over-regulation of the technology, instead urging them to create frameworks and guideposts aimed at catalyzing innovation and building trust. 

“If you think about the companies of the brands that you love and the ones you’re closest to, you feel understood and you feel like you trust them. The same is true for governments,” Serafin said. “So AI actually creates an opportunity to use the technology to actually be able to understand how to get much closer to the people that are looking to participate in different programs.” 

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The Fortune 500 Innovation Forum will convene Fortune 500 executives, U.S. policy officials, top founders, and thought leaders to help define what’s next for the American economy, Nov. 16-17 in Detroit. Apply here.
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