Economists have been wondering when U.S. consumers would run out of steam once and for all—according to Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser, the time is nigh.
Experts have been shocked by the resilience of shoppers, who have continued to spend despite their wallets being pushed to the “point of pain” as the Fed hikes rates to their highest figures in more than two decades.
But whether it was ‘YOLO (you only live once) spenders’ propping up the economy, or people splashing the last of their pandemic cash, it seems the war chests have at last run dry.
With Christmas around the corner it seems consumers are at last scaling their spending back—arguably aiding the Fed in its quest to bring inflation back down to 2%.
Citigroup’s CEO Jane Fraser said “cracks” in consumer spending are most notable among those on the lower end of the ladder.
Fraser said that while Citi’s data shows consumer spending is still “good” and is in positive figures, the growth has begun to “come off,” explaining to CNBC: “September, in terms of the softening of the growth in demand, is…evident.”
Citi’s analysis shows that consumer spending is up about 4% compared to the double digits seen during the pandemic recovery.
The credit card data from America’s third-largest bank reflects reports from the wider economy—the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’s latest report shows the growth in consumer spending dropped between July and August, down to 0.4% from 0.9%.
Services are still seeing a “fair amount” of consumer spending, Fraser added, as well as echoing a new report from the Fed that travel spending remains surprisingly strong.
However Fraser acknowledged that lower-end consumers are beginning to show signs of distress, with “cracks” in their behavior beginning to appear.
“Savings are down,” Fraser continued. “They’re very low at the moment and I think some of the excess savings from the Covid years are close to depletion.”
And it turns out American households actually had far less in their bank accounts than previously estimated, with the Bureau of Economic Analysis finding that between 2017 and 2022 families saved $1.1 trillion less than previously thought.
Even then, Fraser said she wasn’t “worried” about U.S. consumers or corporations—especially when compared to European counterparts.
“I’m not sitting there worried about the health of our consumers, worried about the health of our corporates. They are strong, their balance sheets have been very resilient, and a strong job market is also a good thing,” said Fraser.
The hard part is yet to happen
However Fraser, who is among the highest ranking on Fortune’s Most Powerful Women list, said she’s holding out on declaring how smoothly the economy’s so-called “landing” will go.
She explained that if history is a guide, the second half of reining in inflation is always the more difficult than achieving the initial drop.
“All the numbers right now would suggest you’re in for a soft landing,” Fraser said. “Inflation’s coming down — we’re about half way to where we want to get to in inflation. When you look at it in terms of unemployment and job creation, you look at the GDP, all the indicators are a soft landing.”
Indeed, U.S. inflation fell to below 4%—excluding food and energy prices—for the first time in two years in August, suggesting than underlying price pressures may be beginning to ease.
Although oil prices remain high—thus pushing up gasoline prices—experts have also suggested this factor may rebalance in the near future.
“What gives everyone pause” amid such good news is history, Fraser continued, outlining that in the past the second half of an economic scheme is the “tougher half.”
“We’re starting to see the economy do some of the work for the Fed now,” Fraser added. “So it’s definitely softening and if we start seeing another few sets of datas in the coming weeks then I think that will make the Fed’s job easier.”
