At a summit that began Tuesday in Vilnius, NATO leaders agreed that Ukraine won’t need a so-called Membership Action Plan to prepare for joining, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at a press conference.

That commitment offers Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy a more concrete prospect of securing the full military protection of the US and its allies, while falling short of the clear roadmap that he asked for. Zelenskiy earlier on Twitter criticized NATO for not setting a clear timeline on his country’s bid to join the alliance.

“There’s never been a stronger message from NATO at any time, and if you look at other membership processes there have never been timelines, they have been conditions-based,” Stoltenberg told reporters. He said removing the MAP would turn it from a “two-step process to a one-step process.”

Fifteen years ago, the alliance agreed that Ukraine would one day join, a pledge that proved insufficient to prevent the steady ramp up of Russian hostility that led to last year’s invasion. 

Allies have been grappling with how to move beyond that 2008 summit statement and some countries are concerned that they would limit their room for maneuver in future negotiations with the Kremlin if the pledge is too concrete, according to an official. 

Russia’s war effectively puts a block on NATO membership for Ukraine, since extending the bloc’s collective defense commitments to Kyiv would bring the US and its allies into direct conflict with Russia, and that’s a situation that western leaders aren’t prepared to countenance. 

In a further boost for Ukraine’s long-term outlook, the Group of Seven nations are separately expected on the sidelines of the summit to offer Ukraine bilateral security commitments, aimed at bolstering Kyiv’s own defenses in the hope of deterring Russia from attacking again in the future. 

The NATO allies themselves are due to commit to equipping Ukraine with modern weapons in the long-term, as well as providing training, sharing intelligence and supporting the development of the country’s defense industry. Each nation will provide different commitments, and other countries can join the arrangements, with specifics to be negotiated in future.

Zelenskiy told a crowd of thousands gathered in the center of the Lithuanian capital that Ukraine will make NATO stronger and the alliance will give his country security. “Russia’s predatory ambitions will be left in ruins,” he said, urging the allies not to delay on the membership issue. 

The language on membership forms part of a broader package, aimed at deepening ties with Kyiv and underlining the alliance’s long-term support. The allies upgraded the formal status of the bloc’s ties with Kyiv via a newly established NATO-Ukraine Council, which will allow the country to directly take part in broader discussions about the alliance’s security and hold consultations with allies about its security concerns. NATO agreed to establish a multi-year program of non-lethal assistance and funding to help modernize the country’s military, helping make it more interoperable with allied systems.

Mistake in 2008

NATO diplomats have been wrangling over the membership wording for weeks, with some eastern members pushing for a concrete road map, while countries like the US have wanted to focus instead on immediate assistance to fend off Russia’s attack. 

The diplomats wanted to settle the negotiations in advance of the summit and avoid letting leaders draft the statement, as in Bucharest in 2008. There’s a school of thought that the agreement thrashed out by leaders including George W. Bush and Nicolas Sarkozy was itself a strategic mistake that paved the way for the current conflict.

Back then, leaders agreed that Ukraine, as well as Georgia, “will become members of NATO” and stated the Membership Action Plan would be the next step but held back on formally launching any process. Putin, who also attended the summit, warned that NATO expansion would force Russia to respond with measures to protect its security and in 2022 tried to justify his invasion of Ukraine by linking it to the alliance’s enlargement.

–With assistance from Kevin Whitelaw and Aliaksandr Kudrytski.