U.S. stimulus checks could unleash a $170 billion wave of fresh retail inflows to the stock market, according to Deutsche Bank AG strategists.
A survey of retail investors showed respondents planned to put 37% of their stimulus cash directly into equities, a team including Parag Thatte wrote in a note Wednesday. With potentially $465 billion of direct stimulus being planned, that adds up to $170 billion, they said.
“Retail sentiment remains positive across the board, regardless of age, income or when the investor began trading,” the strategists wrote. “Retail investors say they expect to maintain or add to their stock holdings even as the economy re-opens.”
A combination of free trading apps and direct government stimulus has helped fuel a boom in retail involvement in the stock market, most notably from first-time investors. Their influence has begun to impact markets, including the world of options, and trading volumes have skyrocketed.
Democrats are racing to pass President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion pandemic aid package without Republican support, a bill that includes $1,400 checks for many Americans. Congress already authorized two rounds of direct payments, first in March last year, then in late December.
According to Deutsche, new investors are younger and more aggressive, and much more likely to trade options frequently compared with more experienced traders. When faced with a hypothetical modest selloff, a majority of respondents said they would increase their investments, the note said — though on net they’d pull out money if the selloff surpassed 10%.
A flurry of buying Wednesday reminiscent of last month’s retail investor-fueled boom and bust, saw GameStop Corp. shares almost quadruple from Tuesday’s close and a host of other so-called meme stocks rising.
