1 in 3 Amazon Prime members are likely to subscribe to Walmart+

July 18, 2020, 1:00 PM UTC

Our mission to help you navigate the new normal is fueled by subscribers. To enjoy unlimited access to our journalism, subscribe today.

Walmart is reportedly planning to debut a $98 annual subscription service called Walmart+ that includes unlimited same-day delivery and discounts at its gas stations. Walmart+ would be a direct competitor to Amazon Prime. And it would cost $21 less per year than Prime. 

The Bentonville, Arkansas retailer has spent years and billions on investments in e-commerce in an attempt to leverage its more than 4,700 U.S. stores to challenge Amazon. Walmart+ heats up the showdown between the No. 1 ranked Fortune 500 company (Walmart) and the No. 2 ranked company (Amazon). 

Will Americans pay for the new Walmart service? To find out, Fortune and SurveyMonkey polled 2,717 U.S. adults between July 13 and 14.*

The data points to Walmart+ having a strong launch. Among U.S. adults, 27% say they’re likely to subscribe to Walmart’s $98 annual subscription service. That could mean tens of millions of signups.

And Amazon Prime could lose droves of members to Walmart+. Amazon Prime members (31%) are more likely than all U.S. adults (27%) to say they’ll sign up for Walmart+. What’s more, 40% of Prime members who earn under $50,000 say they’d likely sign-up for Walmart+. The jury is still out if they’d subscribe to both services at once. If they switch over, that’d be a massive blow to Prime’s membership base of 150 million.

Americans who shop in store at Walmart are the most likely to say they’ll sign up for Walmart+. The more often they shop in person, the more likely they’ll go online: Among weekly in-store Walmart shoppers, 43% are likely to get Walmart+, compared to 32% of monthly shoppers. (That does beg the question: As Walmart+ grows, would it undercut the company’s in-store sales and traffic?)

As for current online shoppers, 41% of U.S. adults who purchased goods or service from Walmart.com since the onset of the pandemic say they’re likely to subscribe to Walmart+.

This all suggests Walmart+ could quickly build a massive membership base based on existing fans—and maintain that all-important recurring revenue stream.

Amazon Prime members skew towards higher income households, according to this Fortune-SurveyMonkey poll. That makes sense for a company that has strategically worked to cultivate affluent Americans in its base. After all, it purchased Whole Foods.

This might have created an opening for Walmart+ to seize customers on the other end of the spectrum. 33% of U.S. adults earning under $50,000 are likely to sign-up for Walmart+, compared to 23% of $100,000 and above earners. 

*Methodology: The Fortune-SurveyMonkey poll was conducted among a national sample of 2,717 adults in the U.S. between July 13-14. This survey’s modeled error estimate is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The findings have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and geography.


This is an excerpt from Fortune Analytics, an exclusive newsletter that Fortune Premium subscribers receive as a perk of their subscription. The newsletter shares in-depth research on the most discussed topics in the business world right now. Our findings come from special surveys we run and proprietary data we collect and analyze. Sign up to get the full briefing in your inbox.

Read More

CryptocurrencyInvestingBanksReal Estate