When it comes to the 2019 Academy Awards, there are only three etched-in-stone certainties about the big night: 1) The show will be held Sunday, Feb. 24, on ABC; 2) it will start at 8 p.m. Eastern Time; and 3) Glenn Close is finally going to take home a statue.
At least, that’s the consensus among several long-time Oscar-watchers, all of whom believe seven-time nominee Close will win a long-deserved Best Actress statue for her role in The Wife. She’s one of a handful of sure-things in a night that’s sure to be full of surprises: Will Netflix’s Roma become the first foreign language film to win Best Picture—and solidify the streamer’s takeover of Hollywood? Will Rami Malek, star of the king-sized Queen-biopic Bohemian Rhapsody, be among the night’s champions? And will the show’s producers be able to hand out all 24 awards in just three hours, even without a host? (Answer: Probably not.)
For a sense of who will emerge victorious on Sunday night, Fortune surveyed the picks of many high-profile experts, including writers and columnists for The Hollywood Reporter, Variety, The Ringer, Entertainment Weekly, and GoldDerby.com. Then we ran their best guesses through our own internal Oscar-prediction machine—aka a slightly doughy guy sitting on a couch in suburban Burbank—to synthesize who will win on the big night. Feel free to use the below conclusions for your own office pool or Oscar-party ballot, but keep in mind the words of William Goldman, the two-time Oscar-winner (and Academy Awards obsessive) who passed away last year. When it comes to the movie industry, Goldman famously wrote, “Nobody knows anything.” That goes double for the Oscars.
Best Picture
Black Panther
BlackKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
THE BEST BET: Only a few months ago, the idea of some more conservative members giving a Netflix movie a major prize seemed like a long-shot. But Bohemian Rhapsody is likely too controversial for a Best Picture win; Green Book is well-liked by many, but has had an at-times rough awards-season campaign; and while the other films all have their supporters, it’s Roma—a patient, gorgeous, and often stirring black-and-white tale of life in 1970s Mexico—that feels the most Best Picture-y. It helps, of course, that Netflix has reportedly spent at least $25 million promoting the film’s release (and that’s not even counting the billboards the company purchased last year). Yet while nearly all of the pundits agree that Roma will take home the top prize, don’t count out a quiet movie-biz backlash against the streaming company, which could lead to an upset in the form of the beloved, billion-dollar-grossing Black Panther.
Best Director
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Adam McKay (Vice)
THE BEST BET: Alfonso Cuarón has already won most of the other big directing prizes this season, and the fact that he also served as Roma‘s cinematographer and screenwriter only reinforces his rep as one of the era’s most gifted filmmakers. Of course, there’s also lots of love for Lee, which brings us to…
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Original Screenplay
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
THE BEST BET: Glenn Close. It’s not even close.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams (Vice)
Marina de Tavira (Roma)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
THE BEST BET: Pick Regina King, though if you’re feeling risky—and perhaps looking for one of those surprise upsets that could put your ballot ahead of your office-mates—Weisz could also be a wise choice.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
THE BEST BET: Count on Rami Malek, who charmed audiences, and overcame a difficult production, to inhabit the late Freddie Mercury. If you don’t believe us, talk to the Los Angeles couple that’s seen Rhapsody 24 times…and counting.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Adam Driver (BlackKkKlansman)
Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Sam Rockwell (Vice)
THE BEST BET: While nearly all of the pundits have gone with Mahershala Ali, don’t discount the Academy’s large percentage of British voters, who might help the delightful Richard E. Grant win his first-ever Oscar.
