Why Apple Will Sell Hundreds of Millions of iPhone Upgrades in the Next 18 Months

February 27, 2018, 4:37 PM UTC

Who said Apple’s iPhone is in trouble?

Fresh off a year-over-year decline in iPhone shipments last quarter, hundreds of millions of iPhone owners could update to new models in the next 18 months, according to GBH Insights analyst Daniel Ives. In a note to investors, Ives predicts that approximately 350 million iPhones “are in the window of opportunity to upgrade.” And Ives believes customers are simply deciding now which iPhone they want to buy.

Questions have arisen of late over just how well the iPhone is performing after reports have surfaced saying Apple will stop production on the iPhone X it released late last year due to disappointing demand. Apple also revealed in a first fiscal quarter earnings release earlier this month that iPhone sales slipped 1% year over year. The decline, which occurred during the busy holiday shopping season, came despite iPhone revenue jumping 13% on higher average selling prices.

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Despite industry concerns that the iPhone could be in a semblance of trouble, Ives doesn’t see it. He said that the iPhone is “alive and well” and the company’s rumored plans to launch three new iPhones this year will only help Apple hit and potentially beat its fiscal year revenue guidance.

But Ives went one step further. He said that the predicted iPhone success, coupled with the continued growth in Apple’s Services business, which includes App Store and Apple Music, should help to propel the company’s share price to “the $200 range” in the next three to six months. He also believes Apple will hit $1 trillion in market cap in relatively short order.

Apple shares are currently trading at $179.15. Ives has placed as 12-month price target of $205 on Apple’s shares.

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