Tesla’s Model 3 Deliveries Will Be Almost 70% Less Than Expected, Analyst Says

December 27, 2017, 5:10 PM UTC

The year may not be wrapping up as hoped for Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk.

An analyst from KeyBanc Capital Markets slashed his forecast for Tesla Tuesday, predicting weaker-than-expected sales for the Model 3 in the fourth quarter.

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Worries about Model 3 sales began to percolate in the third quarter. During that three month period, of the more than 26,150 total vehicles delivered, only 220 were Model 3 cars—below the 1,260 expected by analysts, according to CNBC. KeyBanc analyst Brad Erickson said in a note that Tesla’s failure to deliver the number of Tesla Model 3s expected for the year will be “likely acceptable for the buyside,” but that Tesla’s stock price could take a hit because the Model 3’s margin growth “will disappoint and investors will have to acknowledge no S/X growth at some point, which is not reflected in the shares.”

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Erickson said he spoke with sales representatives at a number of Tesla stores, who revealed that Model 3 deliveries would be lower than he had expected, CNBC reports. He therefore lowered his Model 3 delivery forecast from 15,000 to 5,000 vehicles for the fourth quarter.