• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Analysts expected oil to surge above $200 but China has quietly kept prices half of that—and can’t for much longer

2

Corporate America has been draining the world's water. Matt Damon's new campaign calls on Gap, Starbucks, and Amazon to help give it back

3

Marc Lore’s robots make 500 burrito bowls an hour. A human can make 45

1

Analysts expected oil to surge above $200 but China has quietly kept prices half of that—and can’t for much longer

2

Corporate America has been draining the world's water. Matt Damon's new campaign calls on Gap, Starbucks, and Amazon to help give it back

3

Marc Lore’s robots make 500 burrito bowls an hour. A human can make 45
TechDonald Trump

How Bad Polling Data Fooled Everyone Except Donald Trump

By
Jonathan Vanian
Jonathan Vanian
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Jonathan Vanian
Jonathan Vanian
Down Arrow Button Icon
November 10, 2016, 6:37 PM ET
Donald Trump
FILE - In this Jan. 28, 2016, file photo, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump poses with a ring given to him by a group of veterans during a campaign event on the campus of Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong, File)Photograph by Jae C. Hong—AP

If Barack Obama’s 2012 presidential victory proved big data’s triumph for accurately predicting elections, Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential win could demonstrate the opposite.

Prior to Trump’s upset win, virtually all national polls showed the businessman and reality television star trailing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Her win was considered inevitable, with prominent pollsters and pundits merely arguing about how big her guaranteed victory would be.

And then on Tuesday, voters proved the experts wrong.

But before you lose faith in statistics, data analysis, and basic math, it’s important to realize a fundamental truth about crunching numbers. The results are only as good as the data that is used.

Get Data Sheet, Fortune’s technology newsletter.

In computer science, there’s a saying, “garbage in, garbage out,” that highlights the dangers of bad data. This is why behind every landmark achievement by companies like Facebook and Google in training computers to recognize objects and understanding language, is meticulously organized data.

These companies, clean, add context to, and refine the data they use to feed their algorithms to help computers better recognize cats in photos, for example. Polling data, on the other hand, is quite a different animal.

According to the The Washington Post, Clinton’s campaign used a custom algorithm called Ada that staff fed “a raft of polling numbers, public and private” to help Clinton’s team decide where they should dedicate their resources. But while Ada could help the Clinton campaign best determine when and where to trot out pop stars Jay Z and Beyoncé to campaign rallies, it apparently overlooked “the power of rural voters in Rust Belt states,” the report said.

Trump’s campaign, as The New York Times reported a few days prior to the election, seemed to have relied on much more primitive methods for determining where best to concentrate resources. As the Time’s report describes, they seemed to base their decisions from the emotions of crowds attending Trump’s rollicking campaign events.

In Pennsylvania, which polls projected Clinton to win, Trump’s digital director was reported to have felt optimistic because, as he put it: “You can almost slice the excitement with a knife. You can feel it in the air there.” Trump ended up winning the Keystone State by a thin margin.

At its core, accurate polling data depends on whether the person being questioned is truthful. We’re left to speculate, but it’s worth noting that many Trump supporters greatly distrust the national media that often helps conduct these polls, and even more of them are deeply suspicious of Clinton.

Would Trump supporters in Michigan lie to pollsters about who they supported for president? Trump’s top pollsters, Adam Geller, did recently cite so-called “undercover Trump voters” as one of the reasons his campaign won.

Another possible problem was with Clinton supporters overstating how likely they were to vote. In the end, turnout was lower for Clinton in certain key areas compared with Obama in prior elections.

For more about data, watch:

Analysts have long debunked the notion of voters who don’t reveal to pollsters their true intentions. But Trump’s rise to president-elect is sure to cause people to rethink everything they thought to be true. And that notion of what makes “data” accurate is what makes reliable data crunching tough for pollsters and politicians.

If a picture has been labeled as a cat, it’s probably correct to say that the picture is indeed of a cat. The truth of accurate polling data, however, is far murkier.

About the Author
By Jonathan Vanian
LinkedIn iconTwitter icon

Jonathan Vanian is a former Fortune reporter. He covered business technology, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, data privacy, and other topics.

See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Tech

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Tech

Why is it so hard to get ROI from AI? Because building from first principles isn’t easy
NewslettersEye on AI
Why is it so hard to get ROI from AI? Because building from first principles isn’t easy
By Jeremy KahnJune 11, 2026
6 hours ago
SpaceX lowballed its bankers on fees. Goldman Sachs has another way to win big
Startups & VentureFinance
SpaceX lowballed its bankers on fees. Goldman Sachs has another way to win big
By Shawn TullyJune 11, 2026
7 hours ago
Three ways that Asia’s enterprises are adopting AI—and where they are falling behind
CommentaryOracle
Three ways that Asia’s enterprises are adopting AI—and where they are falling behind
By Garrett IlgJune 11, 2026
8 hours ago
Dr. Shiv Rao speaks
Startups & VentureHealth
Abridge wants to be the operating system for medicine—and NVIDIA and Eli Lilly are helping build it
By Lily Mae LazarusJune 11, 2026
11 hours ago
Silicon Valley insiders warn U.S. defense supply chain is unprepared for modern warfare
AIBrainstorm Tech
Silicon Valley insiders warn U.S. defense supply chain is unprepared for modern warfare
By Sebastian HerreraJune 11, 2026
11 hours ago
Exclusive: Consumer device giant LG Electronics to launch blockchain to place and sell ads
CryptoBlockchain
Exclusive: Consumer device giant LG Electronics to launch blockchain to place and sell ads
By Jack Kubinec and Ben WeissJune 11, 2026
11 hours ago

Most Popular

Analysts expected oil to surge above $200 but China has quietly kept prices half of that—and can’t for much longer
Energy
Analysts expected oil to surge above $200 but China has quietly kept prices half of that—and can’t for much longer
By Sasha RogelbergJune 10, 2026
1 day ago
Corporate America has been draining the world's water. Matt Damon's new campaign calls on Gap, Starbucks, and Amazon to help give it back
Environment
Corporate America has been draining the world's water. Matt Damon's new campaign calls on Gap, Starbucks, and Amazon to help give it back
By Catherina GioinoJune 9, 2026
3 days ago
Marc Lore’s robots make 500 burrito bowls an hour. A human can make 45
Innovation
Marc Lore’s robots make 500 burrito bowls an hour. A human can make 45
By Amanda GerutJune 9, 2026
2 days ago
Current price of oil as of June 11, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 11, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 11, 2026
16 hours ago
Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military
Asia
Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military
By Kate O'Keeffe and BloombergJune 8, 2026
3 days ago
Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
Success
Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
By Preston ForeJune 8, 2026
4 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.