Citibank Says Donald Trump Now Has a Less than 1-in-3 Chance of Winning the Election
The chance of seeing golden TRUMP letters on the White House is getting more remote, according to Citibank.
Less than 48 hours after Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton went head to head for their second debate in St. Louis, a team of Citi analysts raised the probability of Clinton taking the White House to 70%.
“Based on continued momentum for Clinton in the polls, and Trump’s difficulty in overcoming challenges and broadening his appeal behind his stalwart supporters, we increase our probability of a Clinton victory to 70% from 60%,” the team of analysts led by Tina Fordham wrote in a note Tuesday.
Citi pointed to a poll from website FiveThirtyEight, showing that prediction markets give Clinton an 80% chance of winning to Trump’s 18%.
While most of Wall Street agrees that Trump’s performance Sunday night solidified his existing support base, it wasn’t enough to capture more swing voters. Following the debate, Cowen’s Chris Krueger for example raised the chances of a Clinton win to 80% from 70%. Moreover, Trump had been inundated with negative press heading into the debate. The Washington Post released a 2005 tape showing Trump talking about kissing, groping, and attempting to have sex with women in vulgar terms on Friday—leading some GOP leaders, including those who are up for re-election in the U.S. House and Senate come Nov. 8, to abandon the businessman.
But after GOP leaders began turning against Trump, the Republican candidate turned around and attacked those leaders who denounced him—a move that some analysts say could hand Democrats the Senate, and even put the House in play.
Macroeconomics research firm, Cornerstone Macro, wrote Monday that in sign of solidarity, Trump’s supporters in swing states may decide to vote against those leaders up for Congressional seats in swing states.
“It does not seem like a stretch to us that we could see a tidal wave” in the House, they wrote.
Still, the Citi analysts warned clients not to assume Clinton’s win too early on.
“Although Clinton is the clear favorite to win, we continue to be cautious due to concerns about polls capturing marginalized voters and the high potential for Black Swan events in this highly volatile race,” the team wrote.