Yes, the 2015 off-year elections had a rightward tilt. But don’t be distracted: Just two years after Democrats lost control of the upper chamber in the 2014 midterms, they’re poised to snatch it right back. To do so, the party needs to pick up five seats — or four, if they can also hold on to the White House. And the map tilts heavily in their favor. Republicans will be defending 24 seats on Election Day, while Democrats only have 10 in play. Democrats already have pickups in their sights in Florida, Illinois, and Wisconsin.

This article is part of the 2016 Fortune Crystal Ball, a package of 33 predictions about business, politics and the economy by the writers and editors of Fortune. To see the entire package, click here.

For more on politics, watch this Fortune video: