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Prediction: Here’s How Much Interest Rates Will Rise in 2016

December 14, 2015, 2:25 PM UTC
Federal Reserve Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged
WASHINGTON - SEPTEMBER 16: Federal Reserve Law Enforcement officers stand outside the Federal Reserve September 16, 2008 in Washington, DC. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met today and announced they will hold the federal funds rate at 2.0 percent, despite the recent turmoil among investment banks on Wall Street. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Photo by Chip Somodevilla via Getty Images

The staff of Fortune recently assembled its predictions for 2016. Here’s one of our forecasts.

The federal funds rate at the end of 2016 will be 0.5%, up from 0.25% this November. Expect the Federal Reserve to raise its interest rate targets once between now and then—but only once, as U.S. economic growth stays steady but slow, while inflation and wage growth also remain modest. Fears of seeming “political” during a presidential election year, sluggish growth in the Eurozone and a slowdown of the Chinese economic juggernaut will also keep Janet Yellen and the rest of the Federal Open Markets Committee from pulling the trigger more often; their vacillation will be one of the year’s longest-running (and least loved) dramas.

This article is part of the 2016 Fortune Crystal Ball, a package of 33 predictions about business, politics and the economy by the writers and editors of Fortune. To see the entire package, click here.