China has lowered its official GDP growth target to 6.5% for 2016, and actual growth is likely to be lower than that. Expect continued cuts to interest rates and bank reserve ratio requirements, as the government scrambles to engineer a soft landing. But the surprising health of the Chinese consumer will keep forecasts of a crash from coming true. Notably, Chinese housing values will continue to rise, buoyed by falling inventories in many major cities. The rest of the world will get a chance to adjust to slower but still steady growth in China.

This article is part of the 2016 Fortune Crystal Ball, a package of 33 predictions about business, politics and the economy by the writers and editors of Fortune. To see the entire package, click here.