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Here’s Where The S&P 500 Will Be at the End of 2016

November 17, 2015, 4:00 PM UTC
First Day Of Trading for 2015 On The Floor Of The NYSE As U.S. Stock-Index Futures Rise After S&P 500's December Decline
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., on Friday, Jan. 2, 2015. U.S. stock-index futures climbed, indicating the Standard & Poor's 500 Index will rebound after posting its first December drop since 2007. Photographer: Jin Lee/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Photograph by Jin Lee — Bloomberg via Getty Images

The staff of Fortune recently assembled its predictions for 2016. Here’s one of our forecasts.

We asked the New York research firm Estimize to crowdsource an estimate among financial pros of where the S&P 500 would end up at the end of 2016. Their answer: 2,235, a gain of about 6% over today’s levels–not too bad, considering that expectations for corporate earnings next year have been steadily declining. Still, calendar 2016 may look less upbeat than this number suggests, says Christine Short of Estimize. The firm is anticipating the usual end-of-year Santa Claus rally for 2015, Short says; after that, the S&P could be close to flat between Jan. 1 and Dec. 31 of 2016.

This article is part of the 2016 Fortune Crystal Ball, a package of 33 predictions about business, politics and the economy by the writers and editors of Fortune. To see the entire package, click here.