We asked the New York research firm Estimize to crowdsource an estimate among financial pros of where the S&P 500 would end up at the end of 2016. Their answer: 2,235, a gain of about 6% over today’s levels–not too bad, considering that expectations for corporate earnings next year have been steadily declining. Still, calendar 2016 may look less upbeat than this number suggests, says Christine Short of Estimize. The firm is anticipating the usual end-of-year Santa Claus rally for 2015, Short says; after that, the S&P could be close to flat between Jan. 1 and Dec. 31 of 2016.

This article is part of the 2016 Fortune Crystal Ball, a package of 33 predictions about business, politics and the economy by the writers and editors of Fortune. To see the entire package, click here.