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How many Watches will Apple sell in 2015? A Fortune survey.

March 2, 2015, 4:59 PM UTC
Apple Presents Apple Watch At Colette Paris
PARIS, FRANCE - SEPTEMBER 30: Apple Presents Apple Watch At Colette Paris on September 30, 2014 in Paris, France. (Photo by Kay-Paris Fernandes/Getty Images)
Photograph by Kay-Paris Fernandes — Getty Images

When we asked analysts last September to estimate how many Apple Watches the company would sell in calendar 2015, the average was 22.6 million. That figure included one estimate — Katy Huberty’s 60 million (!) bull case scenario — that she hasn’t mentioned since.

We surveyed our analysts again today, seven days before Apple’s Spring Forward event, and got nearly the same average — 22.47 million — even without Huberty’s bull case. We didn’t ask for an average selling price, but among those who offered one, the mean ASP was $416.

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Click to enlarge.

If there’s enough Watch news next Monday to move the needle, we’ll try this again.

Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter at @philiped. Read his Apple AAPL coverage at or subscribe via his RSS feed.