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FORTUNE –Although the heyday of the iPad — when it basically owned the tablet computer market — may be over, the product line is still Apple’s (AAPL) second most important source of revenue, holding steady at roughly 20% of total sales.
With growing competition and the rise of the phablet (mini-tablets that double as phones), nobody is expecting a repeat of Q2 2013, when sales grew 55% year over year. In fact, nearly half of the 34 Apple analysts we’ve heard from so far — 21 Wall Street professionals and 13 amateurs — expect the company to report next week that unit sales in fiscal Q2 2014 declined year over year.
The consensus estimate, at 19.3 million, would represent a 0.7% decline, with the pros slightly more optimistic (at 19.4 million) than the amateurs (19.2 million). Dragging down the amateur numbers is the 15 million estimate submitted by the Braeburn Group’s Matt Lew. Tugging in the other direction is Horace Dediu’s 21.8 million. One represents a year-over-year decline of 23%, the other an increase of 12%.
We’ll find out who was closest to the mark when Apple reports its fiscal Q2 2014 earnings after the markets close on Wednesday, April 23.
Below: The individual analyst’s estimates — pros in blue, indies in green. Thanks as always to Posts at Eventide‘s Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.
