• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military

2

'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032

3

Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there

1

Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military

2

'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032

3

Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there

Jeremy Grantham: The Fed is killing the recovery

By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
Down Arrow Button Icon
March 24, 2014, 9:00 AM ET
Jeremy Grantham

FORTUNE — If you hate the Federal Reserve, you have a new hero.

A few weeks ago, Jeremy Grantham, the co-founder of money management firm GMO, called newly appointed Federal Reserve chairman Janet Yellen “ignorant” in the New York Times. He also said the reason for the slow recovery was not the severe financial crisis, continued high unemployment, or the many standoffs in Washington. Instead, he blamed the Fed for ruining the recovery it was supposed to stimulate. To someone who believes in the laws of economics, it’s hard to overstate how odd that claim is. It’s positively bonkers.

Low interest rates stimulate the economy. The Fed has done everything in its power to keep interest rates down, lower and longer than anyone can remember. That should have helped the economy. And yet the recovery has been just meh. So, either Grantham is bonkers, or he is onto something. Fortune recently caught up with him to find out.

Fortune: You believe the Fed’s policies, particularly quantitative easing, have slowed the recovery. What’s your proof?

Grantham: It’s quite likely that the recovery has been slowed down because of the Fed’s actions. Of course, we’re dealing with anecdotal evidence here because there is no control. But go back to the 1980s and the U.S. had an aggregate debt level of about 1.3 times GDP. Then we had a massive spike over the next two decades to about 3.3 times debt. And GDP over that time period has been slowed. There isn’t any room in that data for the belief that more debt creates growth.

MORE: The Fed doesn’t care about the unemployment rate anymore

In the economic crisis after World War I, there was no attempt at intervention or bailouts, and the economy came roaring back. In the S&L crisis, we liquidated the bad banks and their bad real estate bets. Property prices fell, capitalist juices started to flow, and the economy came roaring back. This time around, we did not liquidate the guys who made the bad bets.

Can you really blame the Fed for the bailouts? That was an act of Congress.

I don’t like to get into the details. The Bernanke put — the market belief that if anything goes bad the Fed will come to the rescue — has had a profound impact on people and how they act.

Okay, but that’s still not proof that quantitative easing slowed the recovery.

There’s no proof on the other side, that the economy is any stronger from quantitative easing. There’s some indication that the crash would have been worse and the downturn would have been sharper had the Fed not stepped in, but by now the depths of that recession would have been forgotten, the system would have been healthier, and we would have regained our growth.

It’s economic doctrine that lower interest rates boost the economy. Are you saying that’s wrong?

Economic doctrine says the market is efficient. My view of the economy is not really principle-based. Higher interest rates would have increased the wealth of savers. Instead, they became collateral damage of Bernanke’s policies. The theory is that lower interest rates are supposed to spur capital spending, right? Then why is capital spending so weak at this stage of the cycle. There is no evidence at all that quantitative easing has boosted capital spending. We have always come roaring back from recessions, even after the mismanaged Great Depression. This time we are not. It’s anecdotal evidence, but we have never had such a limited recovery.

MORE: Janet Yellen: The Fed will steer clear of bitcoin

But the Fed does seem to have boosted stocks. Even if it did nothing else, doesn’t a better market help the economy?

Yes, I agree that the Fed can manipulate stock prices. That’s perhaps the only thing they can do. But why would you want to get an advantage from the wealth effect when you know you are going to have to give it all back when the Fed reverses course. At the same time, the Fed encourages steady increasing leverage and more asset bubbles. It’s clear to most investing professionals that they can benefit from an asymmetric bet here. The Fed gives them very cheap leverage on the upside, and then bails them out on the downside. And you should have more confidence of that now. The only ones who have really benefited from QE are hedge fund managers.

Okay, but then I guess that means you think stocks are going higher? I thought I had read your prediction that the market would disappoint investors.

We do think the market is going to go higher because the Fed hasn’t ended its game, and it won’t stop playing until we are in old-fashioned bubble territory and it bursts, which usually happens at two standard deviations from the market’s mean. That would take us to 2,350 on the S&P 500, or roughly 25% from where we are now.

So are you putting your client’s money into the market?

No. You asked me where the market is headed from here. But to invest our clients’ money on the basis of speculation being driven by the Fed’s misguided policies doesn’t seem like the best thing to do with our clients’ money.

We invest our clients’ money based on our seven-year prediction. And over the next seven years, we think the market will have negative returns. The next bust will be unlike any other, because the Fed and other centrals banks around the world have taken on all this leverage that was out there and put it on their balance sheets. We have never had this before. Assets are overpriced generally. They will be cheap again. That’s how we will pay for this. It’s going to be very painful for investors.

About the Author
By Stephen Gandel
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

Xbox CEO Asha Sharma
SuccessCareers
Xbox’s CEO spent her early career taking out trash and selling coupon books—she says the secret to her rise was never obsessing over a dream career
By Preston ForeJune 10, 2026
3 hours ago
Boris Cherny, Head of Claude Code
SuccessHiring
The architect behind Claude Code reveals the three things Anthropic looks for in a good hire—and why people with low ego are a must
By Emma BurleighJune 10, 2026
3 hours ago
Meryl Streep says she was ‘ready to retire’ when the call for ‘Devil Wears Prada 2’ came—so she demanded they double her salary or nothing
SuccessThe Promotion Playbook
Meryl Streep says she was ‘ready to retire’ when the call for ‘Devil Wears Prada 2’ came—so she demanded they double her salary or nothing
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJune 10, 2026
4 hours ago
Trump sits at the Resolute Desk with his hands folded
AIImmigration
OpenAI and Nvidia CEOs didn’t flinch at Trump’s $100,000 H-1B visa fee, and now they’re paying up as their application numbers soar
By Jacqueline MunisJune 10, 2026
4 hours ago
knicks
SuccessNew York
‘Knicks in 6. 2026 NBA Finals’: Why did this New Yorker make a prophecy in his 2020 high school yearbook?
By Philip Marcelo and The Associated PressJune 10, 2026
4 hours ago
platner
PoliticsElections
Graham Platner easily prevails over attempts to derail progressive Senate candidacy in Maine
By Patrick Whittle, Kimberlee Kruesi and The Associated PressJune 10, 2026
4 hours ago

Most Popular

Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military
Asia
Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military
By Kate O'Keeffe and BloombergJune 8, 2026
2 days ago
'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032
Economy
'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032
By Nick LichtenbergJune 9, 2026
1 day ago
Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
Success
Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
By Preston ForeJune 8, 2026
2 days ago
Current price of oil as of June 9, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 9, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 9, 2026
1 day ago
Current price of silver as of Tuesday, June 9, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of silver as of Tuesday, June 9, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 9, 2026
1 day ago
Wall Street dumped nearly $1 trillion in tech stocks by midday—then clawed it back and bought peanut butter and paint
Investing
Wall Street dumped nearly $1 trillion in tech stocks by midday—then clawed it back and bought peanut butter and paint
By Eva RoytburgJune 9, 2026
20 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.