FORTUNE — What’s Apple’s (AAPL) share price going to do over the next 12 months if, as widely expected, the company unveils a pair of new iPhones on Tuesday?
Conventional wisdom says that Apple traders buy the rumor and sell the news, but the series of stock charts Deutsche Bank’s Chris Whitmore shared with clients Monday suggest the opposite.
As the graph above shows, Apple’s share price rose following every iPhone release but two:
- The iPhone 3G, launched a couple months before the U.S. entered its worst economic crisis since the Great Depression
- The iPhone 5, launched the same day Apple’s share price hit an all-time high of $705.07 and began a nine-month free fall
The past, of course, is no guarantee of future results.