• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military

2

'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032

3

Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there

1

Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military

2

'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032

3

Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there

The Fed’s other trillion dollar problem

By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
Down Arrow Button Icon
June 12, 2013, 1:47 PM ET

FORTUNE — U.S. banks now have $1 trillion at the Federal Reserve. It’s far more than they have ever had before, and it could be a big problem.

And it’s a new one. Before the financial crisis, the amount of cash banks kept idle at the Fed rarely topped $25 billion, which in terms of a multi-trillion dollar banking system is peanuts. But shortly after the start of the financial crisis, as a move to help the banks and save the economy (or perhaps the other way around), the Fed began paying interest on money banks deposited at the Fed.

Money flowed in. It has been rising ever since, but the rate of increase has picked up recently. In the first three months of this year, bank reserves at the Fed rose nearly $200 billion, or 25%, after barely budging in 2012. The amount passed the trillion dollar mark for the first time in April. Still, all that extra cash has done little to boost lending, which dropped in the first quarter.

MORE: Ultra-low interest rates are making bonds unsafe

“Many institutions have still seen deposits at the central bank balloon as more liquidity has piled up on their balance sheets in recent years,” analysts Marshall Schraibman and Robb Soukup of bank research firm SNL Financial wrote in a report last week.

In the past month or so, interest rates have begun to rise, mostly driven by concern of what the Fed might do and when, now that the economy is improving. But most of that discussion has been around quantitative easing and the Fed’s $3.1 trillion bond portfolio. But what’s not talked about too often is the other hurdle the Fed faces in exiting its stimulus program — how to deal with all the cash the banks have parked at the Fed, and what happens to that money.

In part, the two issues — the bond portfolio and the bank cash — are sides of the same coin. When the Fed buys bonds, it’s handing over money to someone, be it a bank or investors. And some of that money undoubtedly ends up deposited at a bank, which has to put it somewhere. When the Fed decides to sell off its bond portfolio it will be essentially taking that cash back, and, poof, the bank deposits will disappear.

MORE: Jamie Dimon’s $5 billion bet against bonds

That’s why some see it as nearly a non-issue. “Reserves don’t even factor into my model,” says Laurence Meyer, a former Fed governor and co-founder of economic forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers. “That’s not what causes inflation and not how the Fed stimulates the economy. It’s a side effect.”

Nonetheless, Meyer says Fed economists have drawn up plans to deal with the growing cash hoard. Many think a massive sell-off of the Fed’s bond portfolio might be too disruptive to the bond market, causing rates to skyrocket, slowing the economy and potentially doing massive damage to the banks. As such, the Fed is likely to hang onto its bonds until they mature, which could take years. That means the extra cash at the Fed could be around for long after the economy has fully improved.

That may make it harder to rein in inflation with future interest rate hikes. The Fed currently pays banks an interest rate of 0.25% on their deposits, which now amounts to $2.5 billion a year. Some have already called that a back-door bailout for the banks. Although the banks have to pay some of that money out to the FDIC in order to cover their higher deposit insurance.

If the Fed were to decide to raise interest rates, it would have to increase what it pays the banks on those deposits, which means funneling more government money into the hands of the banks. It’s not clear how that will play politically, especially if it comes at a time when bank profits, and banker bonuses, are soaring again.

MORE: Buffett worries about Fed’s ‘huge experiment’

What’s more, at least part of the reason some banks have sharply increased the amount of money they have at the Fed in the past year could have to do with an anticipation that rates will soon rise. Earning a small risk-free interest rate from the Fed may be more attractive for the banks then lending money out at low interest rates or putting reserves in bonds that will drop in value when rates rise. JPMorgan Chase (JPM), for one, has upped the amount of cash it has at the Fed to $214 billion, up from $61 billion a year ago. Cash deposits at the Fed have also jumped for Wells Fargo (WFC), up to $100 billion from $40 billion a year ago. The hope is that at some point those banks will be able to find better uses for that money.

“The reason you worry about it is because of the potential it represents,” says Bob Eisenbeis, a Fed watcher at Cumberland Advisors. “At some point the Fed will have to deal with it.”

About the Author
By Stephen Gandel
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

Current price of gold as of June 10, 2026
Personal Financegold prices
Current price of gold as of June 10, 2026
By Danny BakstJune 10, 2026
2 hours ago
Current price of oil as of June 10, 2026
Personal FinanceOil
Current price of oil as of June 10, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 10, 2026
2 hours ago
Current price of silver as of Wednesday, June 10, 2026
Personal Financesilver
Current price of silver as of Wednesday, June 10, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 10, 2026
2 hours ago
Businesswoman working at desk with laptop and documents in office
NewslettersCFO Daily
Finance teams can’t quit Excel. Workday wants to change that with AI
By Sheryl EstradaJune 10, 2026
2 hours ago
goldman
Investingprivate equity
‘The circulatory system isn’t working.’ Goldman on what’s really wrong with private markets
By Nick LichtenbergJune 10, 2026
3 hours ago
Exclusive: Mastercard launches protocol to let AI agents pay each other, send micropayments
BankingMastercard
Exclusive: Mastercard launches protocol to let AI agents pay each other, send micropayments
By Ben WeissJune 10, 2026
3 hours ago

Most Popular

Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military
Asia
Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military
By Kate O'Keeffe and BloombergJune 8, 2026
2 days ago
'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032
Economy
'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032
By Nick LichtenbergJune 9, 2026
22 hours ago
Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
Success
Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
By Preston ForeJune 8, 2026
2 days ago
Current price of oil as of June 9, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 9, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 9, 2026
1 day ago
Current price of silver as of Tuesday, June 9, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of silver as of Tuesday, June 9, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 9, 2026
1 day ago
Wall Street dumped nearly $1 trillion in tech stocks by midday—then clawed it back and bought peanut butter and paint
Investing
Wall Street dumped nearly $1 trillion in tech stocks by midday—then clawed it back and bought peanut butter and paint
By Eva RoytburgJune 9, 2026
17 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.