• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

After 40 investors rejected Jeff Bezos’ Amazon pitch, his parents offered $245,573 of their retirement savings

2

China now makes up a record 40% of all global container exports—and it’s a sign Trump’s tariffs meant to punish Chinese firms have fallen flat

3

Current price of oil as of September 24, 2026

1

After 40 investors rejected Jeff Bezos’ Amazon pitch, his parents offered $245,573 of their retirement savings

2

China now makes up a record 40% of all global container exports—and it’s a sign Trump’s tariffs meant to punish Chinese firms have fallen flat

3

Current price of oil as of September 24, 2026

Our Apple whisper numbers

By
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Down Arrow Button Icon
October 17, 2011, 7:11 AM ET
Google source logo
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

We’re averaging the Q4 estimates of the six analysts with the best track records 



Data: Company reports, PED. Chart: Adam Bushman

The chart at right, which compares Apple’s (AAPL) reported earnings for the past six quarters with estimates made in advance of those reports, shows that some analysts are better at predicting the company’s results than others.

Specifically, a group of independent analysts we’ve been calling — for lack of a better term — “the bloggers,” have consistently out-performed the analysts who work for the big banks and brokerage firms (“the pros”).

But even within the blogger group there are individuals who stand out as particularly prescient.

We’ve taken the average estimates of the six analysts with the best records over the past year to calculate our “whisper numbers” — defined by Investopedia as “the unofficial and unpublished earnings per share (EPS) forecasts that circulate among professionals on Wall Street … generally reserved for the favored (wealthy) clients of a brokerage.” [The website WhisperNumber.com uses a different definition.]

We’re going to do Wall Street one better and offer not just one whisper number for Apple’s last fiscal quarter of 2011, but seven of them. Moreover, we’re not going to whisper them to some favored (wealthy) clients, we’re going to publish them.

Based on the estimates of our best analysts, we’re looking for the company to report:

Revenue: $33 billion
EPS: $8.88
iPhone unit sales: 22.35 million
iPod unit sales: 7.56 million
Mac unit sales: 4.72 million
iPad unit sales: 13.06 million
Gross margin: 41.3%

We’ll find out how close our numbers are to the mark on Tuesday at about 4:30 p.m. EST, when the quarterly results hit the business wires. Apple is scheduled to discuss those results in a 5 p.m. conference call with analysts that the company will webcast here.

Below: The full spreadsheet of the most recent estimates from the 58 analysts we polled. As you will see, there are still a few gaps, and some Wall Street analysts haven’t updated their numbers since July. [Note: Updated Tuesday to incorporate most recent estimates from Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi. Updated Monday afternoon to incorporate revisions from Citigroup’s Richard Gardner, Ticonderoga’s Brian White, Baird’s William Power and BCG’s Colin Gillis.]



Click to enlarge. Source: Analysts reports
About the Author
By Philip Elmer-DeWitt
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in


Most Popular

Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • TikTok icon
  • YouTube icon

    Latest in


    Most Popular

    © 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
    FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.