• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Jensen Huang made his $172 billion fortune on AI chips. His family's $75 million gift to Vanderbilt argues art decides what technology is for

2

'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down

3

The $39 trillion U.S. national debt isn’t as high as Japan’s and Singapore’s relative to economy size—and yet it's still worse somehow

1

Jensen Huang made his $172 billion fortune on AI chips. His family's $75 million gift to Vanderbilt argues art decides what technology is for

2

'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down

3

The $39 trillion U.S. national debt isn’t as high as Japan’s and Singapore’s relative to economy size—and yet it's still worse somehow

Time to buy News Corp.?

By
Duff McDonald
Duff McDonald
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Duff McDonald
Duff McDonald
Down Arrow Button Icon
July 21, 2011, 7:12 PM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.


Rupert Murdoch

FORTUNE — The media frenzy over the News Corp. phone-hacking scandal has been a thing to behold. There’s nothing like a good comeuppance to get journalists all hot and bothered, and the sight of Rupert and James Murdoch taking the “we’re not criminals, we’re just clueless” defense in front of Parliament will surely go down as one of the year’s most entertaining spectacles. We now know that Rupert just might be a doddering old fool, that his son can prevaricate with the best of them, and that Wendi Deng has clearly been put on edge by the whole experience.

What we also know is that a somnolent and acquiescent board has been shocked into a state of alertness that might even rival that of Rupert’s wife. They’re said to be considering a whole range of options. One: ditching the company’s entire UK Newspaper business (odds: not too bad). Two: separating the roles of chairman and CEO, kicking Rupert out of the chief executive’s chair and replacing him with president Chase Carey (odds: not too good). Three: a $5 billion stock repurchase effort (odds: seemingly 100%). What they’re hopefully not going to do is allow Rupert to make any more ego-driven but dilutive acquisitions, such as that of Dow Jones and its flagship the Wall Street Journal.

Wall Street analysts like to do something called a sum-of-the-parts valuation when it comes to big conglomerates like News Corp. (NWS).It helps them (and their clients) to better understand how one can even consider putting a price on the totality of such a disparate and diverse collection of assets. Normally, though, these are just thought exercises—all the more so when you have a dictatorial chief executive like Rupert who is hell-bent on collecting as many toys as he can before he croaks. Ask him six months ago if he planned to break up News Corp., and he would have laughed in your face. Ask him today, and while he may still laugh, the board of News Corp. won’t be laughing with him. All options seem to be on the table.

Michael Nathanson, an analyst at Nomura Equity Research, ran an interesting breakup analysis of News Corp on Monday. In it, he envisioned splitting the company into three separate parts: Good News Corp, Bad News Corp, and Toxic News Corp. In his analysis, the parts look to be worth more than the sum.

Nathanson’s Good NWS includes the company’s cable networks, its television properties, its BSkyB stake, and its Sky Italia business. He estimates that Good NWS would have $17.3 billion in fiscal 2012 revenues, just under half that of the combined company. Even after saddling Good NWS with all of News Corp’s current debt (albeit all its cash as well), he sees impressive earnings growth of 30% annually. Putting a 14x multiple on those earnings that’s comparable to other pure play cable assets, he gets to $14.54 per share of Good NWS alone. NWS shares were trading at $16.90 as of Thursday morning.

Nathanson then takes Toxic NWS—all of its newspaper assets—and throws them overboard, despite their accounting for just under 9% of estimated 2012 earnings before interest and taxes. That’s a combined $6.2 billion in 2012 revenues onto which he puts a value of zero. The investment community has long considered the newspaper holdings nothing more than a result of Rupert’s vanity and chokehold on News Corp. votes, and has discounted the shares accordingly. Sure, the company may make money if it sells them, but under current ownership, they’re worthless to investors, if not worse.

Finally, we come to Bad NWS. Into this pile Nathanson throws filmed entertainment, magazines, and book publishing. While filmed entertainment does have value, including syndication deals, negative DVD trends have Nathanson choosing to be conservative and to include them in the less attractive half of Good/Bad NWS. Combined, these businesses would account for an estimated $10 billion in 2012 revenue and earnings per share of $0.39.

Here’s where the numbers get really interesting. If you subtract his Good NWS valuation of $14.54 from today’s share price of $16.90, you’re left with $2.46 per share that is attributable to Bad NWS. (Remember, Toxic NWS is worth nothing.) Divide that by $0.39 of 2012 earnings, and you’re paying just 6.3 times those earnings for Bad NWS. (Earlier in the week, with the shares at $15.64, you were only paying 2.8x earnings.) “Not entirely free,” wrote Nathanson at the time. “But very, very cheap.” The argument still stands today. If the board does do its job and forces Murdoch to seriously consider all strategic options, there just might be some real money to be made on these shares.

The biggest risk that Nathanson can see is that the company’s derailed acquisition of the part of BSkyB that it didn’t own leaves Rupert with too much money to play with, therefore increasing the likelihood of his making another value-destroying acquisition like that of Dow Jones or MySpace. It says a lot about a company when analyst reports are concerned that the chief executive has too much money at his disposal.

And he’s right to be concerned: Even with all the hush money this firm has apparently been paying out to phone-hacking victims, and including the $5 billion share buyback, News Corp. will have an estimated $9.4 billion in cash on hand at the end of 2012. So there’s your big bet: the stock is a BUY if the board can stop Rupert from doing something stupid with the money, while also forcing him to consider breaking the company up for the good of its shareholders.

After his performance on Tuesday, it doesn’t seem like either one of those tasks is going to be too hard.

About the Author
By Duff McDonald
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • TikTok icon
  • YouTube icon

Latest in

Photo of ballots being counted and sorted
PoliticsElections
Nearly 150,000 California mail ballots rejected in June primary, a record high thanks to late-arriving ballots
By The Associated Press and MIchael R. BloodJuly 24, 2026
4 hours ago
Photo of the nun
North AmericaImmigration
Nun detained by ICE on her way to Mass speaks out for first time: ‘For me, a nun, not to go to Mass…it was very, very heartbreaking’
By The Associated Press, Valerie Gonzalez and Jamie StengleJuly 24, 2026
4 hours ago
Court illustration of the author testifying
LawTerrorism
Salman Rushdie describes a ‘lake of blood’ as his convicted attacker faces terrorism charges tied to the 2022 stabbing
By The Associated Press, John Wawrow and Jennifer PeltzJuly 24, 2026
4 hours ago
A gun lays on a table next to a row of ammunition.
Lawgun control
Two gun rights groups are suing the U.S. Virgin Islands over concealed carry for nonresidents
By The Associated Press and Danica CotoJuly 24, 2026
4 hours ago
Vice President JD Vance sits in on a meeting.
North AmericaJD Vance
The Secret Service is investigating a member of JD Vance’s detail over a suspected news leak
By The Associated PressJuly 24, 2026
4 hours ago
Google logo is displayed on a smartphone in front of the EU Flag.
CybersecurityGoogle
EU strikes Google with $1 billion fine in major crackdown on antitrust regulations even as Trump threatens retaliation
By The Associated Press and Sam McNeilJuly 24, 2026
4 hours ago

Most Popular

Jensen Huang made his $172 billion fortune on AI chips. His family's $75 million gift to Vanderbilt argues art decides what technology is for
Big Tech
Jensen Huang made his $172 billion fortune on AI chips. His family's $75 million gift to Vanderbilt argues art decides what technology is for
By Sydney LakeJuly 23, 2026
2 days ago
'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down
Economy
'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down
By Eleanor PringleJuly 24, 2026
17 hours ago
The $39 trillion U.S. national debt isn’t as high as Japan’s and Singapore’s relative to economy size—and yet it's still worse somehow
Economy
The $39 trillion U.S. national debt isn’t as high as Japan’s and Singapore’s relative to economy size—and yet it's still worse somehow
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 23, 2026
1 day ago
The millennial generation has split, new Fed research shows: Those over 35 are edging toward boomer-style wealth, while everyone else falls behind
Real Estate
The millennial generation has split, new Fed research shows: Those over 35 are edging toward boomer-style wealth, while everyone else falls behind
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 22, 2026
2 days ago
Current price of oil as of July 24, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of July 24, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 24, 2026
15 hours ago
Turns out Dead Internet Theory was right: AI agents are eating the Web, growing by nearly 8,000% and rewiring the Internet's business model
AI
Turns out Dead Internet Theory was right: AI agents are eating the Web, growing by nearly 8,000% and rewiring the Internet's business model
By Mia OsmonbekovJuly 23, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.