• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

After 40 investors rejected Jeff Bezos’ Amazon pitch, his parents offered $245,573 of their retirement savings

2

Current price of oil as of September 24, 2026

3

China now makes up a record 40% of all global container exports—and it’s a sign Trump’s tariffs meant to punish Chinese firms have fallen flat

1

After 40 investors rejected Jeff Bezos’ Amazon pitch, his parents offered $245,573 of their retirement savings

2

Current price of oil as of September 24, 2026

3

China now makes up a record 40% of all global container exports—and it’s a sign Trump’s tariffs meant to punish Chinese firms have fallen flat

Bloggers vs. Pros on Apple’s Q3: Yet another $2 billion gap

By
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Down Arrow Button Icon
June 26, 2011, 11:34 AM ET
Google source logo
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

If you ask about sales in the quarter that just ended, you get three very different answers



Sources: Apple 2.0 poll, Thomson Financial, Apple Inc.

Apple’s (AAPL) third fiscal quarter of 2011 ended Saturday at midnight. How did it go? That depends whom you ask.

In April, Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer told analysts he expected Apple to earn $5.03 per share on sales of $23 billion. But given how Apple tends to low-ball its forward-looking guidance, nobody really believed him.

The consensus of nearly four dozen professional analysts, according to Thomson Financial Friday, is that Apple will report earnings of $5.63 on sales of $24.52 billion, up 60% and 52%, respectively, from the same quarter last year.

Over the weekend, we polled our regular panel of amateur analysts and got estimates from nine of them, including Jeff Fosberg of the Apple Finance Board, Bullish Cross‘ Andy Zaky and Asymco‘s Horace Dediu, who came in 1st, 2nd and 5th in last quarter’s earnings smackdown.

The amateur’s consensus for Q3: earnings of $6.64 on sales of $26.6 billion — up nearly 90% and 70%, respectively, year over year.

This marks the third quarter in a row that the amateurs’ revenue estimates were more than $2 billion higher than the professionals’. (See here and here.)

If you’re wondering on whom to put your chips, the amateurs as a group have outperformed the pros every quarter for the past 10. In Q1, they underestimated Apple’s earnings by 1% compared with the pros’ 9% miss. In Q2 they overestimated by 3% while the pros underestimated by nearly 6%.

About the Author
By Philip Elmer-DeWitt
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in


Most Popular

Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • TikTok icon
  • YouTube icon

    Latest in


    Most Popular

    © 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
    FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.