ChangeWave Research: iPad 2 demand 40% higher than iPad 1

April 12, 2011, 12:43 PM UTC

A new survey suggests that Apple sold 7 million iPads in Q2, including 2-3 million iPad 2s

RBC Capital’s Mike Abramsky joined the 7 million club Tuesday.

That’s the small but growing group of analysts who believe Apple (AAPL) sold 7 million or more iPads in its second fiscal quarter, which ran from December 26 to March 26.

Two other Wall Street analysts, Jeffries’ Peter Misek and Caris’ Robert Chira, came up with the same 7 million number, and one, Gabelli’s Hendi Susanto, is looking for Apple to sell 8.8 million iPads.

There are three amateur analysts in the 7 million club, but none is as bullish as Susanto. And nobody is quite as bearish as Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi and Ticonderoga’s Brian White, with matching estimates of 5.132 million.

Abramsky’s number includes a rough break-down by model: 4-5 million iPad 1s and 2-3 million iPad 2s. It’s based on a proprietary survey of 2,000 potential customers conducted from March 14-23 by ChangeWave Research. In that survey, 28% of respondents said they planned to buy an iPad 2, 40% higher than a similar survey of potential buyers of the original iPad in May 2010. (See chart.)

Below: An updated list of iPad estimates from our poll of 45 analysts, professional and amateur. We’ll find out who was closest to the mark when Apple reports its fiscal Q2 2011 earnings on April 20.

Analyst, affiliationiPad unit sales (millions)Date of est.
Hendi Susanto, Gabelli & Co.8.803/25/11
Alexis Cabot, Apple Finance Board8.003/30/11
Nicolae Mihalache, Traderhood7.753/27/11
Horace Dediu, Asymco7.303/27/11
Daniel Tello, Deagol’s AAPL Model7.113/21/11
Robert Cihra, Caris7.003/25/11
Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital7.004/12/11
Peter Misek, Jeffries7.003/30/11
Matthew Hoffman, Cowen & Co.6.961/19/11
Dennis Hildebrand, Apple’s Gold6.953/26/11
Jeff Fosberg, Apple Finance Board6.903/27/11
Patrick Smellie, Apple Finance Board6.803/25/11
Andy Zaky, Bullish Cross6.803/31/11
William Fearnley, Janney Capital6.801/19/11
Robert Paul Leitao, Posts At Eventide6.753/30/11
Chas McKenna, Apple Finance Board6.703/27/11
Shaw Wu, Sterne Agee6.703/30/11
William Power, Baird6.701/19/11
Luke Kittell, Apple Finance Board6.503/29/11
Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna6.503/25/11
Charlie Wolf, Needham6.503/29/11
Andy Hargreaves, Pacific Crest6.233/30/11
Bill Shope, Goldman Sachs6.153/25/11
Keith Bachman, BMO Capital6.103/18/11
Mark Moskowitz, J.P. Morgan6.053/25/11
Maynard Um, UBS6.003/28/11
Steven Fox, CLSA6.003/29/11
T. Michael Walkley, Canaccord Genuity6.003/28/11
Daniel Ernst, Hudson Square6.001/19/11
Richard Gardner, Citigroup6.003/25/11
Adam Thompson, Apple Finance Board5.903/22/11
Mark Beauch, Apple Finance Board5.883/29/11
Scott Sutherland, Wedbush5.873/3/11
Ralph Schackart, William Blair5.831/19/11
Turley Muller, Financial Alchemist5.503/23/11
Tavis McCourt, Morgan Keegan5.503/25/11
Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer5.503/2/11
Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank5.504/5/11
Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray5.503/25/11
Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley5.503/25/11
Scott Craig, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch5.333/21/11
Brian Marshall, Gleacher & Co.5.303/3/11
Rajesh Ghai, Think Equity5.163/25/11
Toni Sacconaghi, Bernstein Research5.133/2/11
Brian White, Ticonderoga5.133/28/11


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