Is there a bull market in brutal Egyptian dictators?
There is Monday. The odds of an imminent departure by Egypt’s president, Hosni Mubarak, declined on Intrade, which makes a market in bets on political, sports and entertainment events.
The bulls aren’t exactly running wild, mind you. The market is putting the odds at 3 in 5, or 60%, that Mubarak will depart by Feb. 28, Intrade shows. That’s down from 3 in 4 odds as of yesterday.
The improvement comes as demonstrations continue against Mubarak, if with less bloodshed. The relative calm has helped feed a recovery in financial markets, which were hit hard Friday by news of riots with heavy casualties.
The Mubarak Intrade rally also comes in spite of comments from former President Jimmy Carter that suggest the end is near. Mubarak has run Egypt for 30 years but may be at the end of his reign, Carter said.
Carter called the uprising in Egypt the “most profound situation in the Middle East since I left office.” He said Sunday his “guess is Mubarak will have to leave,” according to reports.
Of course, it’s no surprise the Intrade numbers would ignore Carter’s take. After all, he’s not a betting man. (Hat-tip alea)