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Based on NPD data, iPods, not Macs, are being cannibalized by the iPad, says an analyst

Photo: Apple Inc.

Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster has looked at the NPD Group’s data for the month of April and concluded that it’s good news for Apple (AAPL). How so?

  1. The data show domestic Mac sales up 39% year over year, on track to beat the roughly 19% the Street is expecting for the June quarter. By Munster’s reckoning, that translates into sales for Apple’s fiscal Q3 of 3.1 to 3.2 million units.
  2. The same data show iPod sales down 17% year over year, worse than the 9% fall-off that Munster was expecting and on track to sell 9 to 10 million units in the quarter. But that’s good for Apple’s bottom line, he reasons, because…
  3. “April NPD data gives us the first sign of the degree to which the iPad cannibalizes iPod or Mac sales,” he writes. “From the early NPD data, it appears that the iPad has a minimal cannibalization impact on Mac sales, and could be slightly cannibalizing iPod sales. Given the [average selling price] (4x) and margin profile of the iPad, we see this as a net positive for Apple’s business.”

Below: The NPD data.

[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]