It is possible that the problem with the world right now, or at least one of the problems with the world, which seems to have its fair share at this point, is that people are required to give their opinions on matters that are relatively obscure, and then, due to the nature of Information Flow at this juncture, everybody is informed of their opinions immediately. And we shouldn’t be.
Take this economic situation, for instance. We all know it stinks. A trip to France in Coach now costs $2,000 U.S. dollars and, even worse, a martini in Paris is now running thirty bucks. It cost me $35 to fill up a Scion XB last weekend. We have recession and deflation and inflation and stagflation and everybody is planning their stay-cation this summer.
Naturally, even though we’re experiencing this depressing compression ourselves, we also need to read about it all the time, for some reason. Why, I don’t know. But this demand to suck our thumbs with bogus speculation must be satisfied, and for that we need to hear from people who are required, for a variety of reasons, to know things we don’t know, and express that status continually.
The thing is, they don’t know. They have opinions, sure. Their opinions are possibly more educated than ours, but education isn’t everything. In the end, what we’re reading about are opinions. And when the smart guys don’t agree, what’s the valuation of all this flatulation?
So again, back to this economic decrepitudination we’re undergoing. We begin the week with two smart people who further confuse us.
First we have Alan Greenspan whose further additions to his previously stated opinions about the situation is dutifully reported in the Financial Times and quoted in today’s Daily Briefing. Apparently we have a 50% chance of being in a recession, according to this very smart individual, who used to be infallible until he wasn’t anymore. It seems, he says, that there is data indicating things are stabilizing, but it’s too early to tell. If we do have a recession, it won’t be that bad though, probably. He says. Unless, you know, a bunch of other stuff happens, in which case things could get worse.
At the same time, Warren Buffet, who is always right so far, is quoted by the AP as saying: “I believe that we are already in a recession,” while doing something in Germany, apparently. “Perhaps not in the sense as defined by economists. … But people are already feeling the effects of a recession.” He added, “It will be deeper and longer than what many think.” Referring to Greenspan? Probably not.
Do we believe him? Don’t we always believe him? Sure, we have a little tickle in the back of our minds that wonders whether Warren has bet in some way that there will be a recession and is now making money on it… but no, he’s probably right. We’re in one. Unless we’re not and it’s only a 50% shot that it will be, and when it does come, as Alan says, it may not be so bad, unless it is.
I go back to my suggestion. I think we should all take as much money out of the bank as we can, every day, and spend it on something other than gasoline. Shop at places whose owners need our money to pay their rent. Press the politicians and the banks to work out some alternative to foreclosures. And stop reading other people’s opinions.
Except mine, of course. Please don’t do that.
