• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Mark Cuban says he has the solution to growing income inequality, and it's to reward every employee—from CEO to janitor—with company stock

2

‘I want to die broke’: Billionaire philanthropist Denny Sanford dies after giving away $4 billion

3

OpenAI says its AI models secretly broke out of a secure test environment and hacked into AI company Hugging Face in order to cheat on an evaluation

1

Mark Cuban says he has the solution to growing income inequality, and it's to reward every employee—from CEO to janitor—with company stock

2

‘I want to die broke’: Billionaire philanthropist Denny Sanford dies after giving away $4 billion

3

OpenAI says its AI models secretly broke out of a secure test environment and hacked into AI company Hugging Face in order to cheat on an evaluation

Is Google running out of gas?

By
Yi-Wyn Yen
Yi-Wyn Yen
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Yi-Wyn Yen
Yi-Wyn Yen
Down Arrow Button Icon
February 29, 2008, 8:00 AM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

By Yi-Wyn Yen

Google’s stock is on its steepest decline ever, a sign that investors who once believed in the search giant’s story of perpetual growth have started to lose faith.

There’s certainly some immediate cause for concern. Google’s revenue growth is rapidly decelerating — more rapidly than would be accounted for by its sheer size. Last year’s annual growth rate of 56.5% has now dropped to 28.27%, according to Thomson Financial. And its stock price, the best measure of investors’ perception of future growth, is taking a beating of historic proportions. Google’s shares slid from a 52-week high of $747 last November to $475 on Thursday’s close, lopping more than $85 billion off its market cap in the space of three months.

Analysts say it’s not yet time to freak out. Betting against Google, they say, is a bit like betting against Tiger Woods.

“Google is not falling off a cliff,” said Lehman Bros.’ Doug Anmuth. “For the past six months or so, the broad consensus is that Google would be somewhat impacted by a recession. It’s not immune, but Google would certainly hold up a lot better than most.”

To be sure, an economic slowdown — and a fall-off in advertising dollars — probably wouldn’t hurt Google (GOOG) as much as, say, newspapers and glossy magazines. But some are asking a more fundamental question. They want to know whether Google’s growth engine is running out of gas.

“Google hit the bull eye’s with search,” said Iggy Fanlo, CEO of AdBrite, referring to the business of selling ads for Hertz based on the auction of key search terms, such as “rental car.” “Google has this square peg that they’ve been fitting into this square hole.”

But there are signs that the market for search ads may be approaching saturation. Much of this week’s losses can be traced to a comScore report that found that clicks on Google’s ads in January were flat. Google had warned that it has been rooting out fraudulent and accidental clicks, which probably accounts for some of that weakness. But it may not account for all of it.

The deeper problem for Google is that many investors perceive it as a one-trick pony. Most of Google’s ancillary ventures — Google maps and docs and the like — are loss leaders. For real revenue growth, Google has been trying to build a business in display advertising — like the banner ads that appear in social networks and other venues. But they’re finding that it’s not as easy as it looks. “Some of the monetization work we were doing [on MySpace] didn’t pan out as well as we had hoped,” admitted Sergey Brin, Google’s cofounder, during the company’s fourth quarter earnings call.

The trick, experts say, is to put ads on the screen that reflect customers’ interests, something that goes beyond simply knowing what context they’re being viewed in.

“Contextual advertising isn’t the right thing for most of the Internet,” says AdBrite’s Fanlo. “It’s like selling Superbowl ads. They don’t sell me cleats, jerseys or helmets. They sell me cars, beer, and erectile dysfunction medication because they know I’m an old, fat guy.”

Fanlo says most advertisers are better off targeting customers based on where they live, who they are, and how they surf the web.

Another problem for Google is that although tech-savvy advertisers are eager to expand their marketing dollars beyond paid search, they’re not willing to spend those dollars blindly. They want tools and reporting systems that help them target display ads and accurately track their effectiveness.

In other words, advertisers now want the business of buying display ads to be as transparent as Google’s paid click system.

“Google is the leader of accountability. Consumers type in keywords into the search box. They click on ads, and clients are happy. But more and more, we’re seeing clients who want to know the relationship between advertising on Google and the brand messaging,” said Rob Norman, CEO of GroupM Interactive, a holding company of WPP. “There’s a perceived value and an actual value of online advertising, and our job is to help clients navigate that.”

It was to provide such tools that Google made its $3.1 billion bid for ad-service leader DoubleClick, a deal that has been approved but not yet consummated.

Meanwhile, Google’s search ad business, while not growing as fast as it was, continues to make money.

“A 4% drop in the stock based on the day’s news doesn’t show any fundamental problems in the ad model,” says Michael Ostrovsky, assistant professor of economics at Stanford. “This is a very sound model. Maybe some of the rules of how keywords are being auctioned will change, but the fundamental ideals of how Google sells ads is going to stay for a long time.”

About the Author
By Yi-Wyn Yen
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • TikTok icon
  • YouTube icon

Latest in

t
AIMarkets
Billionaire Mike Bloomberg warns Trump’s AI ownership plan would make ‘George Orwell blush’
By Eva RoytburgJuly 21, 2026
5 hours ago
Anthea Hartig, Director of the National Museum of American History, looks to her left at a House Committee.
PoliticsWhite House
Smithsonian director derides a White House report branding the museum as ‘woke’
By The Associated Press and Steven SloanJuly 21, 2026
5 hours ago
Cleveland’s WNBA team doesn’t play until 2028 but Progressive just scored jersey sponsorship
SuccessSports
Cleveland’s WNBA team doesn’t play until 2028 but Progressive just scored jersey sponsorship
By Joe Reedy and The Associated PressJuly 21, 2026
5 hours ago
Trump says ‘we’re gonna help’ Lebanon as he moves to restore direct flights after four-decade hiatus
North AmericaDonald Trump
Trump says ‘we’re gonna help’ Lebanon as he moves to restore direct flights after four-decade hiatus
By Kareem Chehayeb and Will WeissertJuly 21, 2026
5 hours ago
U.N. reports Southeast Asia’s criminal networks are using tech to build a global illicit economy
AsiaTech
U.N. reports Southeast Asia’s criminal networks are using tech to build a global illicit economy
By The Associated PressJuly 21, 2026
5 hours ago
An open plain bagel with cream cheese smeared on a plate.
North AmericaImmigration
Seeds, schmear, sesame: How a bagel’s toasted crunch that became a reflection of America’s identity
By The Associated Press and Josh CornfieldJuly 21, 2026
5 hours ago

Most Popular

Mark Cuban says he has the solution to growing income inequality, and it's to reward every employee—from CEO to janitor—with company stock
Success
Mark Cuban says he has the solution to growing income inequality, and it's to reward every employee—from CEO to janitor—with company stock
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 20, 2026
1 day ago
‘I want to die broke’: Billionaire philanthropist Denny Sanford dies after giving away $4 billion
Success
‘I want to die broke’: Billionaire philanthropist Denny Sanford dies after giving away $4 billion
By Sydney LakeJuly 20, 2026
2 days ago
OpenAI says its AI models secretly broke out of a secure test environment and hacked into AI company Hugging Face in order to cheat on an evaluation
Cybersecurity
OpenAI says its AI models secretly broke out of a secure test environment and hacked into AI company Hugging Face in order to cheat on an evaluation
By Jeremy Kahn and Emily ForliniJuly 21, 2026
7 hours ago
'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says we're headed for universal basic income or 'some form of socialism' as AI revolutionizes work—He calls that optimistic
AI
'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says we're headed for universal basic income or 'some form of socialism' as AI revolutionizes work—He calls that optimistic
By Jason MaJuly 18, 2026
3 days ago
Mathematicians grapple with a ‘very rapid and very unsettling change’ as AI cracks yet another century-old problem
AI
Mathematicians grapple with a ‘very rapid and very unsettling change’ as AI cracks yet another century-old problem
By Eva RoytburgJuly 21, 2026
11 hours ago
Despite a $156 million contract, Knicks star Jalen Brunson still calls his parents for financial advice any time he makes a big purchase
Success
Despite a $156 million contract, Knicks star Jalen Brunson still calls his parents for financial advice any time he makes a big purchase
By Emma BurleighJuly 21, 2026
12 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.