The watch may be the talk of the town, but it's the phone brings in the big bucks.

By Philip Elmer-DeWitt
April 16, 2015

The earnings report forApple’s second fiscal quarter is less than two weeks away, and much as we like to obsesses about the new Watch, it hasn’t earned Apple a penny yet.

No, what mattered in Q2 is the same thing that mattered most in Q1: The iPhone, source of nearly 70% of Apple’s revenue.

Last quarter, the analysts blew it. Their iPhone unit sales estimates for Q1 ranged from 61 million to 71 million. Actual iPhones sold: 74.5 million.

Let’s see if they can do better this time.

We’ve heard so far from 21 analysts — 18 pros and 9 amateurs.

BTIG’s Walter Piecyk has the low estimate (50 million), independent Faizai Kara of the Braeburn Group the high (64 million). The average estimate of each group — pros at 55.6 million and amateurs at 59.3 million — are not that far apart. Either would represent double-digit growth from the same quarter last year.

We’ll find out who was closest to the mark when Apple reports its Q2 earnings after the markets close Monday, April 27.

Below: The individual analyst’s estimates — pros in blue, indies in green. Thanks as always to Posts at Eventide’s Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.

Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter at @philiped. Read his Apple AAPL coverage at fortune.com/ped or subscribe via his RSS feed.

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