The earnings report forApple’s second fiscal quarter is less than two weeks away, and much as we like to obsesses about the new Watch, it hasn’t earned Apple a penny yet.

No, what mattered in Q2 is the same thing that mattered most in Q1: The iPhone, source of nearly 70% of Apple’s revenue.

Last quarter, the analysts blew it. Their iPhone unit sales estimates for Q1 ranged from 61 million to 71 million. Actual iPhones sold: 74.5 million.

Let’s see if they can do better this time.

We’ve heard so far from 21 analysts — 18 pros and 9 amateurs.

BTIG’s Walter Piecyk has the low estimate (50 million), independent Faizai Kara of the Braeburn Group the high (64 million). The average estimate of each group — pros at 55.6 million and amateurs at 59.3 million — are not that far apart. Either would represent double-digit growth from the same quarter last year.

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We’ll find out who was closest to the mark when Apple reports its Q2 earnings after the markets close Monday, April 27.

Below: The individual analyst’s estimates — pros in blue, indies in green. Thanks as always to Posts at Eventide’s Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.

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Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter at @philiped. Read his Apple AAPL coverage at or subscribe via his RSS feed.