Apple Presents Apple Watch At Colette Paris
Photograph by Kay-Paris Fernandes — Getty Images

How many Watches will Apple sell in 2015? A Fortune survey.

Updated: Mar 02, 2015 6:38 PM UTC

When we asked analysts last September to estimate how many Apple Watches the company would sell in calendar 2015, the average was 22.6 million. That figure included one estimate -- Katy Huberty's 60 million (!) bull case scenario -- that she hasn't mentioned since.

We surveyed our analysts again today, seven days before Apple's Spring Forward event, and got nearly the same average -- 22.47 million -- even without Huberty's bull case. We didn't ask for an average selling price, but among those who offered one, the mean ASP was $416.

Screen Shot 2015-03-02 at 1.19.14 PM

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If there’s enough Watch news next Monday to move the needle, we'll try this again.

Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter at @philiped. Read his Apple AAPL coverage at fortune.com/ped or subscribe via his RSS feed.