iPhones were an upside surprise last quarter. The 43.7 million units Apple sold in fiscal Q2 were about 5.5 million better than expected, helping spark a three-month, 30% rally that took the stock from a split-adjusted $74.55 per share last April to Wednesday’s intraday high of $97.10.
None of the analysts Fortune polled in advance of next week’s Q3 earnings anticipate that kind of surprise. But most expect to see steady iPhone growth, even though the smartphone market is supposed to be saturated. Even though the models Apple is selling are nine months old. Even though everybody expects the company to introduce new iPhones in September.
We’ve heard from 26 Apple analysts so far — 15 Wall Street professionals and 11 amateurs. Their estimates for Q3 range from a high of 39.68 million iPhones from Exane BNP Paribas’ Alexander Peterc, to a low of 31.8 million from RBC’s Amit Dayanani.
The average of all the estimates is 35.88 million, which would represent a 14.85% increase year over year.
As usual, the amateurs are more bullish, with an average estimate of 36.5 million. But the pros weren’t far behind at 35.4 million.
We’ll find out who was closest to the mark when Apple reports its fiscal Q3 2014 earnings after the markets close on Tuesday, July 22.
Below: The individual analyst’s estimates — pros in blue, indies in green. Thanks as always to Posts at Eventide‘s Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers