These Commodities Should Rebound in 2016

Photo: Carla Gottgens—Bloomberg via Getty Images

But most will continue a worrying slump.

Research by Scott DeCarlo; Design by Nicolas Rapp

As investors near the end of a volatile 2015, many asset classes still look expensive by historical standards. You can’t say that about commodities, however: The prices of most have collapsed over the past three years. Still, low prices aren’t necessarily a buy signal. Commodities generally don’t rally until producers shut down money-losing mines and wells and farmers idle fields to bring supply and demand into balance. That isn’t happening in energy. (Global oil supply is still rising as OPEC balks at slowing output.) And in metals, though some miners are cutting back, the slowdown in China and other emerging markets continues to dampen demand. Some bright spots? Shortages should boost coffee and cocoa prices in 2016, and brokers surveyed by Thomson Reuters Eikon expect modest rebounds for gold, silver, and copper. But until developing economies heat up again, the broader commodities outlook is dreary at best.

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A version of this article appears in the December 15, 2015 issue of Fortune with the headline “Do Their Futures Have a Future?”


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