• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

U.S. companies have finally gotten $71 billion in tariff refunds, but they’re using it to offset inflation caused by the Iran war

2

Buffett says AI giants are ‘playing a game they don’t want to play’ in the AI race, reveals he was behind Berkshire’s $31 billion bet on Google

3

FedEx CEO says we are in the middle of the biggest supply chain shift he’s seen in 35 years: ‘We are the referendum’

1

U.S. companies have finally gotten $71 billion in tariff refunds, but they’re using it to offset inflation caused by the Iran war

2

Buffett says AI giants are ‘playing a game they don’t want to play’ in the AI race, reveals he was behind Berkshire’s $31 billion bet on Google

3

FedEx CEO says we are in the middle of the biggest supply chain shift he’s seen in 35 years: ‘We are the referendum’
MagazineFinance

Three Stocks to Own in Risky Times

By
Ryan Derousseau
Ryan Derousseau
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Ryan Derousseau
Ryan Derousseau
Down Arrow Button Icon
June 26, 2018, 8:00 AM ET
Illustration by Nazario Graziano; All photos via Getty Images
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

FOR A BUY-AND-HOLD INVESTOR, taking stock of the geopolitical landscape can feel like a disorienting, daily roulette-wheel spin to determine which news story will make you most jittery. What’ll it be: a nuclear face-off with Iran? High-stakes talks with North Korea? Trade spats between the U.S. and its allies? The crumbling of the European Union? Oh, and don’t forget the ongoing investigation into Russian influence on the 2016 election. (Excuse us as we mute CNBC and pop another Xanax.)

It’s not your imagination: By some indicators, the world currently faces measurably more risks than usual. This year, two Federal Reserve economists unveiled a Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index that tracks occurrences in news reports of “words related to geopolitical tensions.” When international conflict, terrorist threats, or nuclear posturing ramps up, the index spikes. Since 1985, the average daily GPR reading was 81; this May it hit 147—more than 80% above the mean. Investment giant BlackRock, meanwhile, recently launched its own statistical gauge for political risk. It stands nearly one standard deviation higher than its historical average—high enough, BlackRock says, for investors to consider portfolio adjustments.

Here’s the good news: Conflict may be tough on your nerves, but it’s seldom the cause of tough times for stocks. Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, recently looked at military actions going back to 1983. He found that even when major attacks occur—think the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, or the 2011 toppling of Muammar Qaddafi in Libya—stock markets typically recover within five days. Still, geopolitics become a financial threat when they create stressful long-term conditions that hurt companies’ profits and discourage investment. That’s why, of all the items on the global-strife laundry list, analysts worry most about trade wars.

Most economists agree that restrictive tariffs hurt growth—and could do more damage today, when more companies rely on global sales and supply chains to sustain profits. The restrictions often backfire on the industries they’re designed to protect: In the 1980s, for example, the U.S. placed tariffs on steel from Japan, but 10 of the 11 largest U.S. steel producers saw negative equity returns from 1982 to 1986, according to the Brookings Institution. The current environment has an added wrinkle, notes Tina Fordham, chief global political analyst at Citi: Countries have considered microtargeting sanctions at specific companies or subsectors. It isn’t hard to envision, for example, China retaliating against Trump administration tariffs by punishing Boeing, which got 13% of its sales from China last year.

 

 

WHAT’S THE BEST WAY TO ADJUST to such uncertainty? Historically, the industries that have held up best amid geopolitical risk in general and trade tensions in particular are defense, oil, and consumer staples. Defense stocks look pricey these days, however. Over the past five years, they have risen 20% annually, compared with 11% for the S&P 500, as investors sought to cash in on a growing Pentagon budget. “All the good news is priced in,” says Chris Higgins of Morningstar.

The oil patch looks more promising. Times of turmoil tend to boost crude prices, to the benefit of big U.S. producers—of which the best positioned right now is Chevron (CVX). The company endured criticism for recent investments in new production, particularly in Australia, but many of those wells are coming online just in time to capitalize on rising prices. Then there’s Texas’s Permian Basin, whose stunning energy boom Jeffrey Ball depicted in our Fortune 500 issue (June 1). Chevron’s production there has risen from less than 150,000 barrels a day in early 2017 to about 250,000 today, en route to a planned 650,000 by 2022. Those capabilities, along with an enviable balance sheet—Chevron generated $20.5 billion in cash flow from operations in 2017—make the stock about 25% undervalued today, assuming an oil price of $65 a barrel, says Jefferies analyst Jason Gammel.

Kinder Morgan (KMI), a huge operator of pipelines and terminals, doesn’t benefit immediately from rising oil prices. But as the surge encourages producers to dig more wells and invest in new projects, they’ll sign more of the transportation contracts that account for most of Kinder’s revenue. The company’s $37 billion debt load, a by-product of an infrastructure building spree, has scared some investors away: It trades at a 35% discount to peers in pipeline and “midstream” energy based on estimated 2019 distributable cash flow, says Raymond James’s Darren Horowitz. But its stable income and dominant position in energy infrastructure make it an attractive long-term play.

No amount of global angst will make you stop purchasing food or toilet paper, and analysts expect consumer-staples stocks to benefit if trade tensions hurt other industries. Investors haven’t been impressed so far by aggressive cost cutting at Kraft Heinz (KHC); shares in the packaged-foods giant have fallen more than 35% since rival Unilever rejected its takeover bid in February 2017. But the company now boasts the best profit margins among its food peers, says Edward Jones analyst Brittany Weissman. If Kraft Heinz can start growing revenue again, “the stock will be rewarded for that,” Weissman says. And even if not, its healthy margins could make it look like a haven when investors scurry for safety.

A version of this article appears in the July 1, 2018 issue of Fortune with the headline “Where To Hide From The Headlines.”

About the Author
By Ryan Derousseau
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest from the Magazine

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest from the Magazine

Europe must take opportunity to ‘dream bigger’ if it’s to seize its innovation moment
Magazineeuropean economy
Europe must take opportunity to ‘dream bigger’ if it’s to seize its innovation moment
By Francesca CassidyJune 22, 2026
26 days ago
REE Corp. chair Nguyen Thi Mai Thanh spent 40 years navigating Vietnam’s economy. Here’s what she thinks comes next
MagazineVietnam
REE Corp. chair Nguyen Thi Mai Thanh spent 40 years navigating Vietnam’s economy. Here’s what she thinks comes next
By Nicholas GordonJune 16, 2026
1 month ago
Vietnam is becoming the hottest tourist hotspot in Southeast Asia—and trying to avoid Thailand’s mistakes
Magazinetourism
Vietnam is becoming the hottest tourist hotspot in Southeast Asia—and trying to avoid Thailand’s mistakes
By Angelica AngJune 16, 2026
1 month ago
More than manufacturing: Vietnam has hopes to become Asia’s next cultural powerhouse
MagazineMedia
More than manufacturing: Vietnam has hopes to become Asia’s next cultural powerhouse
By Lee WilliamsonJune 16, 2026
1 month ago
Vietnam’s economy is one of the fastest-growing in the world. Can it make the leap into the ranks of middle-income countries?
MagazineVietnam
Vietnam’s economy is one of the fastest-growing in the world. Can it make the leap into the ranks of middle-income countries?
By Nicholas GordonJune 16, 2026
1 month ago
The Southeast Asia 500 has a new engine: Vietnam
MagazineSoutheast Asia 500
The Southeast Asia 500 has a new engine: Vietnam
By Andrew StaplesJune 15, 2026
1 month ago

Most Popular

U.S. companies have finally gotten $71 billion in tariff refunds, but they’re using it to offset inflation caused by the Iran war
Economy
U.S. companies have finally gotten $71 billion in tariff refunds, but they’re using it to offset inflation caused by the Iran war
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 17, 2026
19 hours ago
Buffett says AI giants are ‘playing a game they don’t want to play’ in the AI race, reveals he was behind Berkshire’s $31 billion bet on Google
Big Tech
Buffett says AI giants are ‘playing a game they don’t want to play’ in the AI race, reveals he was behind Berkshire’s $31 billion bet on Google
By Mia OsmonbekovJuly 16, 2026
1 day ago
FedEx CEO says we are in the middle of the biggest supply chain shift he’s seen in 35 years: ‘We are the referendum’
C-Suite
FedEx CEO says we are in the middle of the biggest supply chain shift he’s seen in 35 years: ‘We are the referendum’
By Fortune EditorsJuly 15, 2026
2 days ago
Current price of oil as of July 17, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of July 17, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 17, 2026
16 hours ago
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says 300,000 workers are needed to rebuild American shipbuilding—with jobs paying $100,000 without a college degree
Success
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says 300,000 workers are needed to rebuild American shipbuilding—with jobs paying $100,000 without a college degree
By Preston ForeJuly 16, 2026
1 day ago
26 Meta employees accuse Mark Zuckerberg of using AI to target 8,000 layoffs against workers on medical, parental or family leave
Law
26 Meta employees accuse Mark Zuckerberg of using AI to target 8,000 layoffs against workers on medical, parental or family leave
By Barbara Ortutay, Alexandra Olson and The Associated PressJuly 15, 2026
3 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.