A new study by the McKinsey Global Institute estimates that between 400 million and 800 million of today’s jobs will be automated by 2030.
The research adds fresh perspective to what is becoming an increasingly concerning picture of the future employment landscape. “We’re all going to have to change and learn how to do new things over time,” institute partner Michael Chui told Bloomberg.
In the U.S., it seems it’s the middle class that has the most to fear, with office administrators and construction equipment operators among those who may lose their jobs to technology or see their wages depressed to keep them competitive with robots and automated systems.
In places where labor is cheaper and tech is more expensive, jobs may be less vulnerable than in more developed markets.
There will—of course—be new kinds of jobs, too, McKinsey’s research arm said. As recently articulated by business leaders like Bill Gates and Autodesk chief Andrew Anagnost, an aging population may lead to more work for caregivers (unless they too are replaced by robots, as is happening in Japan) and for people who tend to the robots.
“There will be enough jobs for all of us in most scenarios,” report co-author Susan Lund said, according to Wired.