President Trump took to Twitter Monday to argue that his base of support is “bigger and stronger than ever,” but recent polls show that is not the case.
“The Trump base is far bigger & stronger than ever before (despite some phony Fake News polling),” Trump wrote. “Look at rallies in Penn(sylvania), Iowa, Ohio…”
The tweets ignore the fact that Trump is doing poorly among all Americans—56% disapprove of his performance, according to Gallup’s three-day rolling average—in order to narrowly focus on his base of voters.
But however you define that, Trump is also doing poorly there.
Though the president’s support among Republicans remains high, it has dipped in recent weeks and is not “bigger and stronger than ever.” A recent Quinnipiac University poll found that 76% of GOP voters approve of the president, down from 84% just a month earlier.
Trump is doing even worse with a key demographic segment that propelled him into office: white voters without a college degree. The Quinnipiac poll showed they disapprove of the president by a margin of 50% to 43%.
Polling in the states Trump cited is not conducted as regularly, but there are indications that it is following national trends. In Iowa, a Des Moines Register poll from mid-July showed that 52% disapprove of the job he is doing, while only 43% approved—the first time that poll had found a majority disapproving.
Trump has held campaign-style rallies in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania; Cedar Rapids, Iowa; and Youngstown, Ohio in recent months which were attended by thousands of supporters, but political scientists caution that attendance at well-planned rallies is not a reliable indicator of support for a political figure.
Trump’s own advisers have admitted his ratings are down.
During an appearance on ABC News’s This Week on Sunday, White House Counselor Kellyanne Conway said the president’s approval ratings could use a boost.
“His approval rating among Republicans and conservatives and Trump voters is down slightly,” Conway said. “It needs to go up. They are telling him just enact your program … focus on the agenda.”
Correction: The original version of this story misstated the timing of Trump’s decline in Quinnipiac polling. His approval rating among GOP voters fell from 84% to 76% over the course of a month, not a week.