Stocks? Don’t think about it. Bonds? No thank you.
Even while some Wall Streeters are saying Donald Trump’s presidency could result in stronger domestic growth and a boost to the stock market, a team of Goldman Sachs (GS) analysts led by top strategist Charles Himmelberg are saying, “Not going to happen.”
The prediction comes as part of the team’s annual not about the top ten market themes for 2017. Theme No.1: Utter disappointment.
Stocks already look expensive from a historical perspective, the team says. And Donald Trump is not going to help the matter. As a result, the Goldman analysts are expecting the S&P 500 Index to close at 2200 in 2017—just 18 points, or higher than where it is now. Goldman also expects the price of the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond to drop 0.50% in 2017. The yield, which moves in the opposite direction of price, will end the year up at 2.75%.
Trump’s plans to increase infrastructure spending and lower taxes could lift economic growth, the analysis say, but it will run right into the country’s—and the world’s—biggest problem, which is a shortage of workers. That will mute the amount boost the economy will get from Trump’s stimulus spending, and it will add to inflation.
Meanwhile, the productivity growth of the American worker is expected to continue slowing—despite improvements in technology—meaning the GDP is not expected to receive a helping hand on that front. Goldman expects GDP to increase just 2.1% next year. That’s a slight increase from last year, but it’s still less than what the rest of Wall Street is expecting.
“We are skeptical,” the team wrote. “Until more clear evidence accumulates showing that the outlook for productivity and trend growth has improved, the opportunity set for investors is likely to remain low.”
And not even Trump will be able to do anything about that.
