• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

'The golden years are not golden': Boomers are hoarding most of America's wealth and power because they're terrified of outliving their money

2

Gen Zers are arriving to college unable to even read a sentence—professors warn it could lead to a generation of anxious and lonely graduates

3

I've sold property on California's Central Coast for decades. The buyers chasing ranch and winery estates are after more than a lifestyle

1

'The golden years are not golden': Boomers are hoarding most of America's wealth and power because they're terrified of outliving their money

2

Gen Zers are arriving to college unable to even read a sentence—professors warn it could lead to a generation of anxious and lonely graduates

3

I've sold property on California's Central Coast for decades. The buyers chasing ranch and winery estates are after more than a lifestyle

Russian debt deal could haunt Ukraine’s economy

By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
Down Arrow Button Icon
March 12, 2014, 9:00 AM ET
Russian President and bond dealer Vladimir Putin

FORTUNE — Just months before the toppling of its government, Russia cut a loan deal with Ukraine that would make even an ace structured finance dealmaker envious. One expert on sovereign debt has called the transaction “clever.” And the deal could come back to haunt Ukraine’s economy.

Back in December, Russia lent Ukraine $3 billion as part of an assistance package that was supposed to reach $15 billion. But Russia didn’t just hand over money directly to Ukraine. Instead, Russian had the Ukrainian government issue $3 billion in bonds. The bonds were denominated in euros. And then Russia bought all of the bonds.

That may have seemed like a straightforward way to do the deal. Ukraine already had billions of eurobonds outstanding. So issuing more may have appeared easier than writing up a new loan agreement. Plus, the deal would give a lift to the prices of Ukraine’s other eurobonds, which were already suffering from the growing political turmoil in the country.

MORE: Ukraine ‘will not lose’ if Crimea sucedes

But the roundabout loan deal had more advantages for Russia than it first appeared. Here’s where things get interesting.

It turns out that Russia didn’t just have Ukraine do a straight debt offering like the ones it had done before. Instead, Russia wrote into the new bond offering a provision. As part of the bond deal, Ukraine had to promise that it would keep its debt-to-GDP level below 60%. If it rose above that level, Russia had the right to demand the bonds be repaid immediately in full.

That kind of qualification in government bond deals is unusual. Mitu Gulati, a sovereign bond expert, says he has never seen a government bond with a similar debt-to-GDP provision. Most sovereign debt is “covenant-lite.”

It would be hard to prove this was premeditated, but including that provision gives Russia a lot of economic leverage. At the time, Ukraine’s debt-to-GDP was near 40%. But with Russian looking likely to hive off Crimea, and taking that portion of the Ukraine’s economic activity with it, along with the slowdown the political unrest has caused, it’s likely that by the next reading or two Ukraine’s debt will be in the 60% range or beyond it.

That means Russia can ask for its money back, and at the same time add more economic hardship to Ukraine as it struggles to rebuild.

MORE: The real reason bitcoin is doomed

If this was a straight loan, Ukraine could just say to Vladimir Putin, “Hey you just invaded us. Debt’s off. We’re not paying.” But since it’s a bond deal, it won’t be that easy. To invalidate the eurobond debt, Ukraine has to argue that Russia knew that part of the money it agreed to give to Ukraine’s past government was at least in part going to line the pockets of a corrupt ruler. The Ukrainians certainly believe that, but that might be hard to prove to an international court.

There are a lot of other Ukrainian eurobonds out there that look similar to the ones Russia is holding, so not paying the ones Russia is holding will have larger implications for all of Ukraine’s debt, causing prices to fall and interest rates to rise. What’s more, Russia could sell its bonds to the market, likely at a premium because of the special provision. That may make a court less likely to invalidate the debt, and Ukraine less willing to do so, if it is held by a private investor, especially a non-Russian one.

That being said, the United States and Europe will likely offer generous loan guarantees and have already pledged aid to Ukraine. That should help it with its near-term debt problems should Russia call its debt. And it probably won’t, given that the debt offers Russia another piece of leverage, and another reason for Ukraine to negotiate.

Of course, there is still a chance that Ukraine would just say it’s not paying the debt, and for it all to work out okay. The unusual debt deal probably works opposite from what you would expect on Wall Street. Most bond holders don’t want to swap their debt for equity. Neighboring nations looking to rebuild old empires may be more willing to make that trade.

About the Author
By Stephen Gandel
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

Current price of gold as of June 8, 2026
Personal Financegold prices
Current price of gold as of June 8, 2026
By Danny BakstJune 8, 2026
30 minutes ago
Current price of silver as of Monday, June 8, 2026
Personal Financesilver
Current price of silver as of Monday, June 8, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 8, 2026
34 minutes ago
Citi's Jenn Landis
NewslettersCFO Daily
Jenn Landis rebuilt Citi’s Wall Street credibility. Her reward: CFO of a $22 billion business
By Sheryl EstradaJune 8, 2026
1 hour ago
solomon
C-SuiteGoldman Sachs Group
Exclusive: Goldman Sachs intern acceptance rate falls below 1% for third straight year
By Nick LichtenbergJune 8, 2026
2 hours ago
dw
C-SuiteNext to Lead
The CEO question that stumped a room full of COOs
By Ruth UmohJune 8, 2026
2 hours ago
The 5 Best Lion’s Mane Supplements of 2026: Expert Approved
HealthDietary Supplements
The 5 Best Lion’s Mane Supplements of 2026: Expert Approved
By Emily PharesJune 8, 2026
2 hours ago

Most Popular

'The golden years are not golden': Boomers are hoarding most of America's wealth and power because they're terrified of outliving their money
Economy
'The golden years are not golden': Boomers are hoarding most of America's wealth and power because they're terrified of outliving their money
By Nick LichtenbergJune 7, 2026
1 day ago
Gen Zers are arriving to college unable to even read a sentence—professors warn it could lead to a generation of anxious and lonely graduates
Success
Gen Zers are arriving to college unable to even read a sentence—professors warn it could lead to a generation of anxious and lonely graduates
By Preston ForeJune 7, 2026
24 hours ago
I've sold property on California's Central Coast for decades. The buyers chasing ranch and winery estates are after more than a lifestyle
Commentary
I've sold property on California's Central Coast for decades. The buyers chasing ranch and winery estates are after more than a lifestyle
By Lindsey HarnJune 6, 2026
2 days ago
Trump stunned as stocks fall on great jobs report. Barclays explains why ‘we are entering the warning zone'
Big Tech
Trump stunned as stocks fall on great jobs report. Barclays explains why ‘we are entering the warning zone'
By Eva RoytburgJune 7, 2026
21 hours ago
AI CEOs from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Microsoft set aside their rivalry to warn Congress AI is making it too easy to design and create bioweapons
AI
AI CEOs from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Microsoft set aside their rivalry to warn Congress AI is making it too easy to design and create bioweapons
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJune 5, 2026
3 days ago
The Strait of Hormuz is more open than previously thought as the U.S. shoots down Iranian drones threatening ships and provides 'naval overwatch'
Energy
The Strait of Hormuz is more open than previously thought as the U.S. shoots down Iranian drones threatening ships and provides 'naval overwatch'
By Jason MaJune 6, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.