• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Iran just crossed Trump's red line for resuming all-out war as fighting continues to escalate with no end in sight

2

U.S. companies have finally gotten $71 billion in tariff refunds, but they’re using it to offset inflation caused by the Iran war

3

Indeed chief economist: Aging Baby Boomers are America's real labor problem, not AI

1

Iran just crossed Trump's red line for resuming all-out war as fighting continues to escalate with no end in sight

2

U.S. companies have finally gotten $71 billion in tariff refunds, but they’re using it to offset inflation caused by the Iran war

3

Indeed chief economist: Aging Baby Boomers are America's real labor problem, not AI

Bill Miller had a great run. But did his investors?

By
Allan Sloan
Allan Sloan
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Allan Sloan
Allan Sloan
Down Arrow Button Icon
December 7, 2011, 10:00 AM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Legg Mason’s superstar is closing out a legendary career. Too bad his investors can’t afford to call it quits.



FORTUNE — There are certain stock market lessons that most investors never learn. Among the biggest is “Beware of throwing money at a popular fund.” That’s one thing we should all take away from the career of Bill Miller, once the mutual fund industry’s brightest star. Miller, who announced recently that he’s stepping down next April, became a star money manager as his Legg Mason Capital Management Value Trust (LMVTX) outperformed the Standard & Poor’s 500 (SPX) for an astounding 15 straight years. The longevity of that streak, which ran from 1991 through 2005, will probably never be matched. It was a fabulous performance.

So what’s the problem? It’s that Miller’s fund attracted so much money as his fame grew that many investors bought in late, as I’ll show you, and missed much of the upward ride. People usually look only at funds’ average annual return, and Miller’s was excellent. But you can also calculate the fund’s average investor’s return, which is often much lower. For instance, if a fund rises 50% in a year that it had $100 million of assets (making $50 million for investors) but falls 10% when it had $1 billion (losing $100 million), the fund is way ahead — up 40% — but its investors have lost money.

Morningstar crunched Miller’s numbers for me, showing that his average investor had a considerably lower return than the fund posted during his long hot streak. The fund made 16.44% a year in gains and reinvested dividends during that period, but the average investor made only 11.34%. Miller’s average investor actually underperformed the S&P (which returned 11.51% annually during his streak), even though his fund way outperformed the index. (See the table at the bottom for all the numbers.) “It’s human nature for investors to act this way,” says Don Phillips, Morningstar’s president of fund research. “When stocks are popular and the market is rising, everyone wants to invest.” Then, when the market hits a bad patch, many fund investors sell near the bottom, giving them the worst of both worlds: buying high and selling low.

Interestingly, the presumably non-starstruck investors in Vanguard’s plain-vanilla S&P 500 index fund (VFINX), which I also asked Morningstar to analyze, fell into the same trap. During Miller’s 15-year hot streak, the index fund returned 11.41% — but its average investor made only 7.96%. That’s because money flooded into the fund in 1999 as it neared its high, and flooded out near the market bottom in 2002. In other words, index investors weren’t any more disciplined than Miller’s investors. Quips Phillips: “Indexing is just a lower-cost way of producing a bad investor experience.”

When it comes to bad experiences, it’s hard to top what has happened to Miller’s investors since his hot streak ended in 2005. From Jan. 1, 2006, through this past Oct. 30, the last date for which average-investor results are available, his fund lost 7.40% a year; his average investor, buying high and selling low, lost 8.31%. By contrast, the average Vanguard index investor made 2.52%.

Thanks to the six-year underperformance, the return of the average Miller investor from the start of his streak in 1991 through October has fallen below the average index investor’s return: 6.06% to 6.61%. The reason: fees. Legg Mason’s management and marketing fees totaled more than 1.6% a year during this period; Vanguard, by contrast, has no marketing fee, and its management fee ranged from 0.15% to 0.20%. That cost disparity far exceeds the performance differential.

Just to let you know, I’m not immune to chasing the hot hand. From 2004 through early 2006, I bought shares in Bruce Berkowitz’s then little-known Fairholme Fund (FAIRX). I did great. As the fund’s reputation soared, I bought more shares in 2010, both before and after Fortune wrote about Fairholme, and bought more early this year — just in time to get whacked. Through November, Fairholme was down a sickening 29% for the year, 30 percentage points below the S&P. I sold in October, having given back almost all the profit I’d made since 2004.

The moral? If you buy a hot manager, don’t be shocked if you get singed.



This article is from the December 26, 2011 issue of Fortune. 

About the Author
By Allan Sloan
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

Iran just crossed Trump’s red line for resuming all-out war as fighting continues to escalate with no end in sight
Middle EastIran
Iran just crossed Trump’s red line for resuming all-out war as fighting continues to escalate with no end in sight
By Jason MaJuly 18, 2026
7 hours ago
Due to cyclospora risk, Taylor Farms expands recall of lettuce sourced from central Mexico and now includes products shipped to 27 states
HealthFood and drink
Due to cyclospora risk, Taylor Farms expands recall of lettuce sourced from central Mexico and now includes products shipped to 27 states
By Savannah Peters and The Associated PressJuly 18, 2026
7 hours ago
U.S. military launches new airstrikes to ‘swiftly punish’ Iran for attack on Jordan that killed American troops
Middle EastIran
U.S. military launches new airstrikes to ‘swiftly punish’ Iran for attack on Jordan that killed American troops
By Jon Gambrell, Toqa Ezzidin, Konstantin Toropin and The Associated PressJuly 18, 2026
7 hours ago
‘Dr. Doom’ Nouriel Roubini says we’re headed for universal basic income or ‘some form of socialism’ as AI revolutionizes work—He calls that optimistic
AIthe future of work
‘Dr. Doom’ Nouriel Roubini says we’re headed for universal basic income or ‘some form of socialism’ as AI revolutionizes work—He calls that optimistic
By Jason MaJuly 18, 2026
7 hours ago
Walmart removes four Taylor Farms salads as recalls spread
RetailFood and drink
Walmart removes four Taylor Farms salads as recalls spread
By Jaewon Kang, Jessica Nix, Fabiola Zerpa and BloombergJuly 18, 2026
9 hours ago
Trump’s billionaire envoy to Italy is on a ‘coastal diplomacy’ tour with his super yacht, but it’s enraging people in Venice. ‘It’s gross’
PoliticsItaly
Trump’s billionaire envoy to Italy is on a ‘coastal diplomacy’ tour with his super yacht, but it’s enraging people in Venice. ‘It’s gross’
By Colleen Barry and The Associated PressJuly 18, 2026
9 hours ago

Most Popular

Iran just crossed Trump's red line for resuming all-out war as fighting continues to escalate with no end in sight
Middle East
Iran just crossed Trump's red line for resuming all-out war as fighting continues to escalate with no end in sight
By Jason MaJuly 18, 2026
10 hours ago
U.S. companies have finally gotten $71 billion in tariff refunds, but they’re using it to offset inflation caused by the Iran war
Economy
U.S. companies have finally gotten $71 billion in tariff refunds, but they’re using it to offset inflation caused by the Iran war
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 17, 2026
2 days ago
Indeed chief economist: Aging Baby Boomers are America's real labor problem, not AI
Commentary
Indeed chief economist: Aging Baby Boomers are America's real labor problem, not AI
By Svenja GudellJuly 18, 2026
20 hours ago
FedEx CEO says we are in the middle of the biggest supply chain shift he’s seen in 35 years: ‘We are the referendum’
C-Suite
FedEx CEO says we are in the middle of the biggest supply chain shift he’s seen in 35 years: ‘We are the referendum’
By Fortune EditorsJuly 15, 2026
4 days ago
Kevin O’Leary claimed opposition to his Utah data center was fueled by Chinese money. Now he and Fox News are being sued for defamation
Law
Kevin O’Leary claimed opposition to his Utah data center was fueled by Chinese money. Now he and Fox News are being sued for defamation
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJuly 17, 2026
2 days ago
Peter Thiel just gave the public its closest look yet at his 'Antichrist' theory—and it's a tech and climate regulator
Politics
Peter Thiel just gave the public its closest look yet at his 'Antichrist' theory—and it's a tech and climate regulator
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 18, 2026
19 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.