President Donald Trump’s major tax cuts will be a boon to the U.S. economy throughout 2018 and 2019, but the president’s other policies could lead to a new recession in 2020, according to a group of top business economists.
The latest quarterly outlook by the National Association for Business Economists states that its panel of 45 economists believe that the nation’s gross domestic product will grow by 2.8% this year, a decrease from the panel’s prediction in March of 2.9% GDP growth, according to the Associated Press.
The panelists forecasted that the nation’s GDP would grow by 2.7% in 2019.
However, the NABE panel also stated that the growth could be cut short by an upcoming recession, with two-thirds of the economists predicting that a recession will start by the end of 2020 and 18% believing that a decline could begin as soon as the end of 2019.
One of the biggest causes for the decline according to the economists are Trump’s current trade policies; three-fourths of the panelists predict that Trump’s imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from the Canada, Mexico, and the European Union, as well as tariffs on Chinese imports, will trigger a global trade war as the nations look to retaliate.