• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

AI CEOs from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Microsoft set aside their rivalry to warn Congress AI is making it too easy to design and create bioweapons

2

MacKenzie Scott's approach to her $26 billion giving spree was inspired by a book she read in college about writing

3

Social Security faces a 24% cut in 2032—that's a $345 billion hit to retirees nationwide, watchdog says

1

AI CEOs from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Microsoft set aside their rivalry to warn Congress AI is making it too easy to design and create bioweapons

2

MacKenzie Scott's approach to her $26 billion giving spree was inspired by a book she read in college about writing

3

Social Security faces a 24% cut in 2032—that's a $345 billion hit to retirees nationwide, watchdog says
Leadership

January’s Jobs Report Was Great – Except for One Number

By
David Z. Morris
David Z. Morris
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
David Z. Morris
David Z. Morris
Down Arrow Button Icon
February 3, 2018, 11:24 AM ET
A NOW HIRING sign
Getty Images

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ January 2018 jobs report, released Friday, contained almost uniformly good news. The American economy added 200,000 jobs, beating economists’ expectations by more than 10%. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%.

Perhaps the most exciting jobs report number was wage growth, which continued through January for a rise of 2.9% over the preceding year, close to the Federal Reserve’s target of 3% or more. That’s the fastest annual wage growth since 2009, and follows years of stagnant wage growth that has exacerbated income inequality and, arguably, fueled political turmoil in the U.S.

All that signals good things for workers and the economy in 2018. Speaking to CNN Money, economist Joseph Brusuelas predicted that the coming year will be “the tightest labor market in over a generation.”

It could be bad news for stocks, though. As Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari explained to CNBC, wage growth will strengthen the case for interest-rate hikes by the Fed (Kashkari does not currently vote on those decisions). That would, in turn, divert capital from the stock market into bonds. That scenario may partly explain why January’s strong jobs report was followed by a broad stock selloff, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping by more than 2.5% by the close.

That’s tough for investors, but the more deeply troubling number may be a less dramatic one. The labor force participation rate, according to BLS, has now been unchanged at 62.7% for four months. The participation rate includes all Americans who are either employed or actively seeking work, but excludes those who want jobs but have given up on job-hunting, as well as those who are not of working age.

Get CEO Daily, Fortune’s newsletter for leaders.

Labor-force participation, or LFPR, has declined steadily from its peak of 67.3 percent in 2000, and plummeted following the 2008 financial crisis. The bleakest interpretation of this decline focuses on a rising proportion of prime-age workers who have been jobless long-term. Many of those are so-called “discouraged” workers, those who are able-bodied but are convinced the economy has no place for them.

Other significant factors driving down labor force participation are the opioid crisis, with one study blaming it for 20 percent of the LFPR drop. Another recent study found that video games were keeping men from working. And disability rates are rising, particularly in poorer parts of the country – a trend that is sometimes interpreted as workers without relevant skills abusing the disability benefits system.

There are other, less grim contributing factors to labor force participation. Baby Boomers are retiring at a steady clip, taking them out of the labor force and opening up new positions, and younger Americans (when they’re not gaming) are working less in part because they’re seeking more education.

Still, working-age dropouts are a drag on the economy, and the fact that low unemployment and rising wages hasn’t budged the LFPR is troubling. If the Trump administration wants to fundamentally improve the economy — rather than just overheating it with the short-term boost of a deficit-funded tax cut — it should focus on the underlying social causes of worker discouragement. On at least one of those, the opioid crisis, it has so far done remarkably little.

So while 2018 is off to a strong start, it’s not without its looming shadows.

About the Author
By David Z. Morris
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Leadership

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Leadership

boss
Future of WorkProductivity
AI productivity gains are real but so is bad management: ‘Leaders are really struggling to articulate what the vision and strategy is’
By Sasha RogelbergJune 5, 2026
13 hours ago
pelley
Arts & EntertainmentMedia
‘I paid the price’: Workers share their Scott Pelley moments of boss talkback — and what it cost them
By Matt Sedensky and The Associated PressJune 5, 2026
15 hours ago
broker
EconomyU.S. jobs report
3 warnings from analysts on the truth lurking beneath the ‘barnburner’ jobs report — and why America’s AI hiring crisis is far from over
By Nick LichtenbergJune 5, 2026
15 hours ago
Suzy Welch, author and NYU Stern School of Business professor
SuccessCareers
NYU Stern professor Suzy Welch says the career aspiration to follow your passion is ‘dumb advice’
By Emma BurleighJune 5, 2026
16 hours ago
Fortune 500 Power Moves: Which executives gained and lost power (May 23-June 5, 2026)
C-SuiteFortune 500 Power Moves
Fortune 500 Power Moves: Which executives gained and lost power (May 23-June 5, 2026)
By Fortune EditorsJune 5, 2026
16 hours ago
Jane Lynch
SuccessCareers
Former ‘Glee’ star Jane Lynch says the secret to career success isn’t a 10-year plan: ‘Life doesn’t care about your timeline’
By Preston ForeJune 5, 2026
16 hours ago

Most Popular

AI CEOs from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Microsoft set aside their rivalry to warn Congress AI is making it too easy to design and create bioweapons
AI
AI CEOs from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Microsoft set aside their rivalry to warn Congress AI is making it too easy to design and create bioweapons
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJune 5, 2026
22 hours ago
MacKenzie Scott's approach to her $26 billion giving spree was inspired by a book she read in college about writing
Success
MacKenzie Scott's approach to her $26 billion giving spree was inspired by a book she read in college about writing
By Sydney LakeJune 5, 2026
23 hours ago
Social Security faces a 24% cut in 2032—that's a $345 billion hit to retirees nationwide, watchdog says
Economy
Social Security faces a 24% cut in 2032—that's a $345 billion hit to retirees nationwide, watchdog says
By Nick LichtenbergJune 5, 2026
23 hours ago
Current price of oil as of June 5, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 5, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 5, 2026
17 hours ago
Ohio city workers are covering automated license plate readers with trash bags as officials sound the alarm on 'egregious violations' of privacy
Cybersecurity
Ohio city workers are covering automated license plate readers with trash bags as officials sound the alarm on 'egregious violations' of privacy
By Sasha RogelbergJune 3, 2026
3 days ago
10,000 Boomers a day, $39 trillion in debt, and no benefit cuts: Bessent stakes Social Security on the Trump economy
Economy
10,000 Boomers a day, $39 trillion in debt, and no benefit cuts: Bessent stakes Social Security on the Trump economy
By Nick LichtenbergJune 4, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.