• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Former U.S. Secret Service agent says bringing your authentic self to work stifles teamwork: 'You don’t get high performers, you get sloppiness'

2

Former VP Kamala Harris says she went through a nine-hour interview to land the job—but she couldn’t escape ‘gold medal depression’ even when she won

3

NBC’s Tom Llamas climbed from 15-year-old intern to the top anchor chair—and still isn’t satisfied: ‘If you're not growing, you're dying'

1

Former U.S. Secret Service agent says bringing your authentic self to work stifles teamwork: 'You don’t get high performers, you get sloppiness'

2

Former VP Kamala Harris says she went through a nine-hour interview to land the job—but she couldn’t escape ‘gold medal depression’ even when she won

3

NBC’s Tom Llamas climbed from 15-year-old intern to the top anchor chair—and still isn’t satisfied: ‘If you're not growing, you're dying'
LeadershipDow Jones

Trump Said the Dow Hit the Most Record Highs Under Him. Then This Economist Schooled Trump

By
Hallie Detrick
Hallie Detrick
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Hallie Detrick
Hallie Detrick
Down Arrow Button Icon
December 19, 2017, 8:40 AM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Justin Wolfers is not taking President Trump’s stock-market claims lying down.

On Monday, as the market again reached a new record high, Trump tweeted that the first year of his presidency had seen 70 record closes (presumably he meant 70 record-high closes), which he said was more than any previous year. Wolfers, professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan and several other institutions, soon shot back saying the stock market performed better under Obama than under Trump at the same point in their presidency. Wolfers cited the S&P 500 instead of the Dow and looked at relative gains under each president rather than all-time nominal value.

70 Record Closes for the Dow so far this year! We have NEVER had 70 Dow Records in a one year period. Wow!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 18, 2017

The market (the S&P 500) has risen 17.5% so far in the Trump presidency.
It rose 37.5% over the equivalent part of the Obama presidency. https://t.co/K4gETlbmcx

— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) December 18, 2017

Justin Wolfers is indeed correct on his S&P 500 numbers for the first 11 months of Obama’s and Trump’s respective presidencies based on a running percentage gain in the index over the course of the 11 months of Trump’s presidency so far.

Percentage increase in the S&P 500 under the most recent six presidents.Source: Macrotrends.net

Wolfers’s point about Obama and Trump stands even if you look at the percentage gains in the Dow under the six most recent presidents, though Trump either out-performs or slightly under-performs George HW Bush depending which index you use.

Percentage increase in the Dow under the most recent six presidents.Source: Macrotrends.net

Ultimately, Clinton had far and away the best stock market results of the four most recent two-term presidents, followed by Obama, then Reagan, and, trailing far behind with negative gains, George W. Bush, whose presidency ended at the beginning of the Great Recession.

It’s not clear where Trump saw the claim that 2017 was the first year with 70 record-high closes, but Bespoke Investment Group, a Harrison, N.Y. investment firm, backs him up, reporting that 1995 had the second-most record-high closes, with 69, followed by 1925, with 65. Given that these other two banner years occurred during pre-recession bubbles, Trump may be well advised to downplay this particular achievement.

The larger point Wolfers seems to be making with his response to Trump is that looking at the number of record-high closes in a narrow period is not a particularly good indicator of economic performance—particularly for a president who inherited a stock market that was already relatively high in value. Moreover, many economists don’t put much stock in the Dow. It is not inflation-adjusted and is highly curated, measuring only the best performers in the economy.

It was a good year—just maybe not that good.

About the Author
By Hallie Detrick
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Leadership

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Leadership

Sony industry starmaker Clive Davis, who launched the careers of Janis Joplin and Whitney Houston, dead at 94
Arts & EntertainmentMusic
Sony industry starmaker Clive Davis, who launched the careers of Janis Joplin and Whitney Houston, dead at 94
By The Associated Press, Mark Sherman and NEKESA MUMBI MOODYJune 22, 2026
43 minutes ago
Elon Musk to get a billion shares of SpaceX if he can settle a million humans on Mars
Startups & VentureElon Musk
Elon Musk to get a billion shares of SpaceX if he can settle a million humans on Mars
By Catherina GioinoJune 22, 2026
1 hour ago
America has a $4 trillion retirement crisis and half of workers could run out of money. TIAA’s CEO wants ‘guaranteed lifetime income’ to fix it
C-SuiteFortune 500: Titans and Disruptors of Industry
America has a $4 trillion retirement crisis and half of workers could run out of money. TIAA’s CEO wants ‘guaranteed lifetime income’ to fix it
By Fortune EditorsJune 22, 2026
1 hour ago
Thibault Sottiaux, Head of Core Product and Platform OpenAI, speaking.
AIOpenAI
OpenAI’s new ‘super app’ boss hopes to persuade users and potential IPO investors that the company is about way more than just chat
By Beatrice NolanJune 22, 2026
2 hours ago
Reassuring dad sits with frustrated adult son
SuccessCost of living
1 in 3 young adults were still living with their parents in 2025—that’s more than the during pandemic and they’re not even unemployed
By Emma BurleighJune 22, 2026
3 hours ago
Brian Moynihan
SuccessProductivity
By 7 a.m., Bank of America’s CEO has already read 5 newspapers, his email inbox, and hit the gym—he says if you’re late to meetings, you’re ‘selfish’
By Preston ForeJune 22, 2026
3 hours ago

Most Popular

Former U.S. Secret Service agent says bringing your authentic self to work stifles teamwork: 'You don’t get high performers, you get sloppiness'
Success
Former U.S. Secret Service agent says bringing your authentic self to work stifles teamwork: 'You don’t get high performers, you get sloppiness'
By Sydney LakeJune 21, 2026
1 day ago
Former VP Kamala Harris says she went through a nine-hour interview to land the job—but she couldn’t escape ‘gold medal depression’ even when she won
Success
Former VP Kamala Harris says she went through a nine-hour interview to land the job—but she couldn’t escape ‘gold medal depression’ even when she won
By Emma BurleighJune 21, 2026
1 day ago
NBC’s Tom Llamas climbed from 15-year-old intern to the top anchor chair—and still isn’t satisfied: ‘If you're not growing, you're dying'
Success
NBC’s Tom Llamas climbed from 15-year-old intern to the top anchor chair—and still isn’t satisfied: ‘If you're not growing, you're dying'
By Preston ForeJune 21, 2026
1 day ago
'I literally was crying last night because I’m nervous about what I’m going to find out': a record 51% of Americans aren't 'cost secure' on health
Health
'I literally was crying last night because I’m nervous about what I’m going to find out': a record 51% of Americans aren't 'cost secure' on health
By Ali Swenson, Amelia Thomson-Deveaux and The Associated PressJune 20, 2026
2 days ago
Tenzin Seldon: The GLP-1 boom is the biggest climate story no one is pricing in
Commentary
Tenzin Seldon: The GLP-1 boom is the biggest climate story no one is pricing in
By Tenzin SeldonJune 21, 2026
1 day ago
Ezekiel Emanuel: My father lived into his 90s. He understood something many successful men miss
Commentary
Ezekiel Emanuel: My father lived into his 90s. He understood something many successful men miss
By Ezekiel J. EmanuelJune 21, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.