• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Jeff Bezos pledged $10 billion for climate change. With the 2030 clock ticking, his wife, Lauren Sánchez Bezos, is leading the charge to spend it

2

'I literally was crying last night because I’m nervous about what I’m going to find out': a record 51% of Americans aren't 'cost secure' on health

3

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says electricians and plumbers will be needed by the hundreds of thousands in the new working world

1

Jeff Bezos pledged $10 billion for climate change. With the 2030 clock ticking, his wife, Lauren Sánchez Bezos, is leading the charge to spend it

2

'I literally was crying last night because I’m nervous about what I’m going to find out': a record 51% of Americans aren't 'cost secure' on health

3

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says electricians and plumbers will be needed by the hundreds of thousands in the new working world
Financehousing prices

2 Ways the Fed Could Crush the Housing Market Recovery

By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
and
Annalyn Kurtz
Annalyn Kurtz
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
and
Annalyn Kurtz
Annalyn Kurtz
Down Arrow Button Icon
March 13, 2017, 1:51 PM ET
Fed Chair Janet Yellen Delivers Speech On Economic Outlook And Monetary Policy
Janet Yellen, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, listens to a question after delivering an address on economic outlook and monetary policy at a World Affairs Council of Philadelphia luncheon event in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S., on Monday, June 6, 2016. Yellen said positive forces supporting U.S. job growth and higher inflation will still probably outweigh negative developments, calling additional gradual interest-rate increases appropriate without specifying their precise timing.Photograph by Andrew Harrer—Bloomberg via Getty Images
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

There’s no doubt the Federal Reserve’s low interest rates have helped the housing market recover from its 2007 bust.

But now as the central bank prepares to hike rates more frequently over this year, mortgage rates are expected to rise in tandem, and there could be a couple unintended negative consequences.

Some homeowners may get stuck.

Consider the homeowners who locked in 30-year mortgages at mere 3.5% or 4% rates—some of the lowest in history. As rates rise, many may find it difficult to give up those deals in exchange for higher rates.

Recently, 56% of 107 economists polled by Zillow said this “mortgage rate lock-in” is already or will have a meaningful impact on the housing market.

“There’s going to be some reluctance for homeowners that have rock bottom mortgage rates to trade out of that into a higher rate, whether it’s through a move or a cash-out refinance,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com.

That said, there’s a key counterpoint here. There are sure to people who still need to move due to such transformational life events as a new job or having children. For these people, moving will often still make sense.

“Nobody is going to say, ‘Let’s stay in a bad school district’ when they have kids, just because they have a 3.5% mortgage,” McBride said.

The rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage reached its all-time low in November 2012, at just 3.31%. As of this week, it was 4.21%, and by the end of 2018, it could go as high as 5.5%, forecasts Matthew Pointon, a property economist for Capital Economics.

He points out that for a homeowner with a $250,000 mortgage fixed at 3.8%, annual payments are $14,000. If that homeowner moved to a similarly-priced home but had a 5.5% rate, their annual payments would rise by $3,000 a year, to $17,000.

That’s not insubstantial, but if the homeowner also had an increase in salary, due to a stronger economy and job market, then perhaps it’s a wash. Friday’s jobs report showed that wages were increasing, but not as strong as some had hoped.

Overall, Pointon estimates that once rising incomes are factored into the equation, less than 10% of home moves will be deterred by the “lock-in” effect.

As both mortgage rates AND prices rise, affordability will decline.

As mortgage rates rise this year, home prices are also expected to keep rising, albeit at a slightly slower pace.

For new homeowners, this means monthly payments become larger, because of the higher rates plus higher prices. If the income of those aspiring homeowners doesn’t rise proportionately, they can probably afford fewer homes on the market.

This is a significant trend to watch, particularly as as millennials age into their prime home-buying years.

It’s these first-time buyers who “will face tougher competition for entry-level homes and often operate with a tighter budget than move-up buyers,” Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell, noted in a press release last month.

Home values rose 6.8% in 2016, and overall, the experts surveyed by Zillow predict they’ll rise another 4.6% in 2017.

About the Authors
By Stephen Gandel
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
By Annalyn Kurtz
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

A new trade war may be brewing. This time, Europe is taking a page from Trump’s playbook — ‘We no longer live in a world of pink ponies and rainbows’
EconomyTariffs
A new trade war may be brewing. This time, Europe is taking a page from Trump’s playbook — ‘We no longer live in a world of pink ponies and rainbows’
By Jason MaJune 20, 2026
8 hours ago
Shipping companies will decide when the Strait of Hormuz is truly open—not the U.S. or Iran—and the latest deal is already sowing confusion
EnergyIran
Shipping companies will decide when the Strait of Hormuz is truly open—not the U.S. or Iran—and the latest deal is already sowing confusion
By Jason MaJune 20, 2026
9 hours ago
Trump threatens to charge U.S. tolls in Strait of Hormuz for ‘services rendered as the Guardian Angel to the countries of the Middle East’
EnergyDonald Trump
Trump threatens to charge U.S. tolls in Strait of Hormuz for ‘services rendered as the Guardian Angel to the countries of the Middle East’
By Kareem Chehayeb, Bassem Mroue, Munir Ahmed and The Associated PressJune 20, 2026
9 hours ago
Who needs rate cuts? Even the Fed’s new chair admits companies are easily raising capital on financial markets amid epic stock and debt binge
BankingStock
Who needs rate cuts? Even the Fed’s new chair admits companies are easily raising capital on financial markets amid epic stock and debt binge
By Jason MaJune 20, 2026
11 hours ago
t
PoliticsWhite House
Americans on Trump and Iran: 65% disapprove, just like his job (dis)approval
By Linley Sanders, Amelia Thomson-Deveaux and The Associated PressJune 20, 2026
12 hours ago
t
Personal Financestudent loans and debt
Trump’s student loan rate cut excludes most of the 9 million borrowers in default
By Alia Wong, Collin Binkley and The Associated PressJune 20, 2026
12 hours ago

Most Popular

Jeff Bezos pledged $10 billion for climate change. With the 2030 clock ticking, his wife, Lauren Sánchez Bezos, is leading the charge to spend it
Environment
Jeff Bezos pledged $10 billion for climate change. With the 2030 clock ticking, his wife, Lauren Sánchez Bezos, is leading the charge to spend it
By Sydney LakeJune 19, 2026
2 days ago
'I literally was crying last night because I’m nervous about what I’m going to find out': a record 51% of Americans aren't 'cost secure' on health
Health
'I literally was crying last night because I’m nervous about what I’m going to find out': a record 51% of Americans aren't 'cost secure' on health
By Ali Swenson, Amelia Thomson-Deveaux and The Associated PressJune 20, 2026
12 hours ago
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says electricians and plumbers will be needed by the hundreds of thousands in the new working world
Success
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says electricians and plumbers will be needed by the hundreds of thousands in the new working world
By Preston ForeJune 20, 2026
18 hours ago
The Great Recession’s missing children are finally bringing college’s financial crisis into sight. Welcome to the ‘enrollment volatility’ era
Economy
The Great Recession’s missing children are finally bringing college’s financial crisis into sight. Welcome to the ‘enrollment volatility’ era
By Tristan BoveJune 20, 2026
21 hours ago
Microsoft boss Steve Ballmer publicly dismissed Chrome as a 'rounding error'—but Google’s CEO says he used the jab as fuel to win the browser-wars
Success
Microsoft boss Steve Ballmer publicly dismissed Chrome as a 'rounding error'—but Google’s CEO says he used the jab as fuel to win the browser-wars
By Preston ForeJune 17, 2026
4 days ago
Anne Hathaway says she was spammed with ChatGPT-written thank you notes after hiring for a recent role: ‘Nobody on that list gets that job’
Success
Anne Hathaway says she was spammed with ChatGPT-written thank you notes after hiring for a recent role: ‘Nobody on that list gets that job’
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJune 18, 2026
3 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.