• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Surging Treasury yields expose a brutal truth: America has no margin for error on its $39 trillion debt

2

U.S. says deals with Iran for safe Hormuz transit are prohibited

3

After a judge ordered Trump's name be removed from the Kennedy Center, president says it will 'soon be closed, probably never to open again'

1

Surging Treasury yields expose a brutal truth: America has no margin for error on its $39 trillion debt

2

U.S. says deals with Iran for safe Hormuz transit are prohibited

3

After a judge ordered Trump's name be removed from the Kennedy Center, president says it will 'soon be closed, probably never to open again'
Finance

Bond King Says the U.S. Economy Is Headed for Recession

By
Reuters
Reuters
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Reuters
Reuters
Down Arrow Button Icon
February 6, 2017, 11:38 AM ET
PIMCO Co-Founder Bill Gross Interview
Photograph by Bloomberg via Getty Images

Bond investor Bill Gross said on Monday that without quantitative easing from the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield would “rather quickly” rise to 3.5% and the U.S. economy would sink into recession.

Gross, who runs the $1.8 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, said in his latest Investment Outlook to clients that Treasury yields will likely rise gradually, yet will stay artificially low due to the “kindness” of foreign central bank quantitative easing policies.

“Without that financial methadone, both bond and stock markets worldwide would sink and produce a tantrum of significant proportions,” Gross said.

“A 2.45% 10-year U.S. Treasury rests at 2.45% because the ECB and BOJ are buying $150 billion a month of their own bonds, and much of that money then flows from 10 basis points JGB’s (Japanese Government Bonds) and 45 basis point Bunds into 2.45% U.S. Treasuries.” (A basis point is equal to one one-hundredth of a percentage point.)

On Friday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury settled around 2.47%.

Gross repeated in his latest research note an assertion he has made for several years that loose monetary policies have “promoted higher asset prices and engendered a modicum of real growth.”

“Capitalism has been distorted: savings/investment has been discouraged by yields/returns too low to replicate historic productivity gains; Zombie corporations have been kept alive in contrast to Schumpeter’s ‘creative destruction,'” he said.

Gross added that debt has continued to rise relative to gross domestic product; the financial system has not been cleansed and restored to a balance where risk and reward are on a level playing field. “Disequilibrium has replaced equilibrium, although it is difficult to recognize this economic phantom as long as volatility is contained,” he said.

Overall, Gross said a client of his recently asked when the Federal Reserve or other central banks would ever be able to sell their assets back into the market.

“My answer was ‘NEVER’. A $12 trillion global central bank balance sheet is PERMANENT—and growing at over $1 trillion a year, thanks to the ECB and the BOJ,” Gross wrote.

About the Author
By Reuters
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

Allison Danielsen is CEO, Tallo.
CommentaryCareers
My wrist injury derailed my college plans. It’s why I’m a CEO today
By Allison DanielsenMay 31, 2026
2 hours ago
treble
CommentaryElections
I built a startup from scratch and still nearly died because of a broken healthcare system. That’s why I’m running for Congress
By Jonathan TrebleMay 31, 2026
2 hours ago
c
EconomyChina
Chinese factory activity flattens as analysts wonder about true damage from Iran War
By The Associated PressMay 31, 2026
4 hours ago
boomer
Personal Financebaby boomers
I wrote that Boomers were choking America’s economy. Their responses to me were revealing
By Nick LichtenbergMay 31, 2026
4 hours ago
Matt Panella
SuccessJobs
This home-builder dropped out of high school and worked construction for $8 an hour—by 22, he was making $200K from his trade empire
By Emma BurleighMay 31, 2026
4 hours ago
Elon Musk surrounded by Money symbols
InvestingFinance
If Elon Musk merges SpaceX with Tesla he’ll create a $3.4 trillion behemoth—with zero profits
By Shawn TullyMay 31, 2026
8 hours ago

Most Popular

Surging Treasury yields expose a brutal truth: America has no margin for error on its $39 trillion debt
Economy
Surging Treasury yields expose a brutal truth: America has no margin for error on its $39 trillion debt
By Shawn TullyMay 30, 2026
1 day ago
U.S. says deals with Iran for safe Hormuz transit are prohibited
Politics
U.S. says deals with Iran for safe Hormuz transit are prohibited
By Jack Wittels and BloombergMay 30, 2026
24 hours ago
After a judge ordered Trump's name be removed from the Kennedy Center, president says it will 'soon be closed, probably never to open again'
Law
After a judge ordered Trump's name be removed from the Kennedy Center, president says it will 'soon be closed, probably never to open again'
By Collin Binkley and The Associated PressMay 30, 2026
18 hours ago
Gen Z is rejecting $200 dates and choosing 'solo-maxxing'—and dating apps are taking a hit
Economy
Gen Z is rejecting $200 dates and choosing 'solo-maxxing'—and dating apps are taking a hit
By Sydney LakeMay 30, 2026
1 day ago
After Blue Origin rocket explosion, NASA's entire moon exploration program depends on SpaceX for now as Musk eyes blockbuster IPO soon
Innovation
After Blue Origin rocket explosion, NASA's entire moon exploration program depends on SpaceX for now as Musk eyes blockbuster IPO soon
By Jason MaMay 30, 2026
19 hours ago
Damn the torpedoes — More ships are quietly slipping through the Strait of Hormuz as helicopters scare off Iran's fast-attack boats
Energy
Damn the torpedoes — More ships are quietly slipping through the Strait of Hormuz as helicopters scare off Iran's fast-attack boats
By Jason MaMay 30, 2026
21 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.