• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Social Security's 2032 deadline puts a 22% cut on the table — but Washington has way less room to negotiate than 1983

2

Boomers actually do hold most of the wealth and power. So why do they call it 'whiny' to point that out?

3

Gen Z fled San Francisco for Texas and Florida. Now they’re turning ‘welcomer cities’ into the next big tech towns

1

Social Security's 2032 deadline puts a 22% cut on the table — but Washington has way less room to negotiate than 1983

2

Boomers actually do hold most of the wealth and power. So why do they call it 'whiny' to point that out?

3

Gen Z fled San Francisco for Texas and Florida. Now they’re turning ‘welcomer cities’ into the next big tech towns
Finance

This Is the Most Important Market Reaction to Donald Trump’s Victory

By
Geoffrey Smith
Geoffrey Smith
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Geoffrey Smith
Geoffrey Smith
Down Arrow Button Icon
November 9, 2016, 8:20 AM ET

Forget stocks. The one market reaction that really counts this morning is in the bond market, and its message is: economic reflation is on the way.

Yields on Treasury bonds have surged to their highest levels in months on the back of a historic night which handed the Republican Party simultaneous control of the White House, Senate and House of Representatives for the first time since 1928, in anticipation of a fiscal stimulus that will drive future interest rates higher.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield raced to an eight-month high on the result, while the benchmark 30-year yield hit 2.80% for the first time since January. Stock futures, meanwhile, although they swung sharply overnight, are essentially back where they were before the FBI announced last Friday that it hadn’t found any fresh evidence against Hillary Clinton.

“Trump has promised a combination of lower taxes, higher issuance of public debt and more spending. All of those are inflationary,” said Alberto Gallo, a partner and portfolio manager at Algebris Investments in London. “On top of that, tariff increases and restrictions on immigration also create inflation.”

In his victory speech, Trump had said “We are going to fix our inner cities, and rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools, hospitals. We’re going to rebuild our infrastructure, and we will put millions of our people to work as we rebuild it.”

The Treasury market is selling off, driving yields higher.

If Trump is true to his promises on immigration, that spending boost will be directed at a shallower pool of workers, protected from competition at the lower end of the pay scale.

The fact that Trump will have a much more cooperative Congress to work with than Barack Obama ever did will also remove many of the constraints to Trump’s fiscal plans, something that may unsettle Treasury holders. And that is just the base case. There is also the ‘tail risk’ (a low-probability, high-impact event) that President-elect Trump revisits his campaign hints about strategically defaulting on Treasurys as a way of reducing the country’s debt burden.

The key question for debt markets now is whether the Federal Reserve will press ahead with the interest rate hike in December that it has signaled with increasing clarity, or whether it will hold off for fear of causing more short-term volatility (the S&P 500 VIX index, a measure of volatility known as Wall Street’s ‘Fear Gauge’, has risen strongly overnight but is still well short of the levels seen after the U.K.’s Brexit referendum in June).

The reaction in the market for interest-rate futures indicates that markets are already paring back expectations for a December rate hike, but Algebris’ Gallo argues that it is still warranted by the economic data. And the President-elect himself, as the campaign wore on, has become more critical of the Fed’s policy of keeping interest rates low.

Megan Greene, chief economist with Manulife Asset Management, says the Fed is now in a tricky situation, especially if, as many predict, Trump implements protectionist policies that tip the economy into a recession.

“It would certainly have difficulty hiking rates into a recession (but) at the same time, Trump’s policies are likely to be inflationary, and so the Fed would aim to defend its 2% inflation target,” Greene said, with a nod to the dilemma faced by the Bank of England since the Brexit vote.

But Greene too assigned a greater risk to inflation overshooting. “Given the choice to prioritize growth or inflation, the Fed is likely to focus on stimulating growth,” she said.

 

 

 

About the Author
By Geoffrey Smith
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

Trump says a deal has been reached with Iran and orders end to U.S. naval blockade as Hormuz to reopen — ‘Ships of the World, start your engines’
PoliticsIran
Trump says a deal has been reached with Iran and orders end to U.S. naval blockade as Hormuz to reopen — ‘Ships of the World, start your engines’
By Julia Frankel, Abby Sewell, Munir Ahmed, Will Weissert and The Associated PressJune 14, 2026
3 hours ago
Social Security faces steep cuts. These senators want to bet on stocks and $27 trillion in debt to save it—but ‘the gamble does not always pay off’
InvestingSocial Security
Social Security faces steep cuts. These senators want to bet on stocks and $27 trillion in debt to save it—but ‘the gamble does not always pay off’
By Jason MaJune 14, 2026
3 hours ago
Vietnam has bold plans for its economic future. It will need U.S. tech, capital, and speed to make them happen
CommentaryVietnam
Vietnam has bold plans for its economic future. It will need U.S. tech, capital, and speed to make them happen
By Brian McFeeters and Vu Tu ThanhJune 14, 2026
3 hours ago
Iran pushes differing versions of deal as U.S. sticks to timeline
PoliticsIran
Iran pushes differing versions of deal as U.S. sticks to timeline
By Salma El Wardany, Arsalan Shahla and BloombergJune 14, 2026
5 hours ago
Iran proved it can close the Strait of Hormuz, but the U.S. is advertising very loudly that the world’s top superpower can at least punch open a hole
EnergyIran
Iran proved it can close the Strait of Hormuz, but the U.S. is advertising very loudly that the world’s top superpower can at least punch open a hole
By Jason MaJune 14, 2026
6 hours ago
SpaceX surge further boosts Saudi billionaire prince’s fortune
InvestingSaudi Arabia
SpaceX surge further boosts Saudi billionaire prince’s fortune
By Adveith Nair and BloombergJune 14, 2026
9 hours ago

Most Popular

Social Security's 2032 deadline puts a 22% cut on the table — but Washington has way less room to negotiate than 1983
Personal Finance
Social Security's 2032 deadline puts a 22% cut on the table — but Washington has way less room to negotiate than 1983
By John W. Diamond and The ConversationJune 12, 2026
2 days ago
Boomers actually do hold most of the wealth and power. So why do they call it 'whiny' to point that out?
Economy
Boomers actually do hold most of the wealth and power. So why do they call it 'whiny' to point that out?
By Nick LichtenbergJune 14, 2026
13 hours ago
Gen Z fled San Francisco for Texas and Florida. Now they’re turning ‘welcomer cities’ into the next big tech towns
Real Estate
Gen Z fled San Francisco for Texas and Florida. Now they’re turning ‘welcomer cities’ into the next big tech towns
By Sydney LakeJune 13, 2026
2 days ago
CEO of $20 billion AI firm Perplexity says the secret to success is ‘sleeping with that fear’ that your competitor will steal your idea
Success
CEO of $20 billion AI firm Perplexity says the secret to success is ‘sleeping with that fear’ that your competitor will steal your idea
By Preston ForeJune 13, 2026
2 days ago
Iran proved it can close the Strait of Hormuz, but the U.S. is advertising very loudly that the world's top superpower can at least punch open a hole
Energy
Iran proved it can close the Strait of Hormuz, but the U.S. is advertising very loudly that the world's top superpower can at least punch open a hole
By Jason MaJune 14, 2026
6 hours ago
'It's not a jailbreak' — Research leading to U.S. export restrictions on top Anthropic models was for defense, cybersecurity CEO says
AI
'It's not a jailbreak' — Research leading to U.S. export restrictions on top Anthropic models was for defense, cybersecurity CEO says
By Jason MaJune 13, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.