If Donald Trump wins the presidential election on Tuesday, Citigroup predicts it will negatively affect the stock market because the result would come as a surprise to the financial industry.
The bank predicted Thursday that the S&P 500 would fall by 3% to 5% if Trump is elected, according to a note sent to clients, CNN Money reported. The bank predicted that stocks wouldn’t move significantly if Hillary Clinton wins.
Tobias Levkovich, Citi’s chief U.S. equity analyst, said a September survey of investors showed that Wall Street expects Clinton to be the next president. The bank predicts she has a 75% chance of winning, according to CNN Money.
“However, if Donald Trump were to win, that outcome would have been unexpected and thereby may cause a jump in the equity risk premium,” Levkovich wrote.