Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump holds a campaign rally at the Giant Center on Nov. 4, 2016 in Hershey, Penn.
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
By Katie Reilly
November 5, 2016

If Donald Trump wins the presidential election on Tuesday, Citigroup predicts it will negatively affect the stock market because the result would come as a surprise to the financial industry.

The bank predicted Thursday that the S&P 500 would fall by 3% to 5% if Trump is elected, according to a note sent to clients, CNN Money reported. The bank predicted that stocks wouldn’t move significantly if Hillary Clinton wins.

Tobias Levkovich, Citi’s chief U.S. equity analyst, said a September survey of investors showed that Wall Street expects Clinton to be the next president. The bank predicts she has a 75% chance of winning, according to CNN Money.

“However, if Donald Trump were to win, that outcome would have been unexpected and thereby may cause a jump in the equity risk premium,” Levkovich wrote.

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