The indicator that many market watchers say has become the best predictor of whether Donald Trump will win the presidency is calling the second presidential debate for Hillary Clinton.
The value of the Mexican peso rose to its highest level on Sunday night it has been in more than a month. A number of market commentators have said that the peso has become the best gauge of whether investors think Trump can be president. And the gain in the Peso indicates that investors think that Trump’s chances after Sunday night’s debate just got longer.
Asian shares also rose after the debate. The Shanghai Composite was up 0.6% shortly after the debate finished. Generally markets have rallied when Clinton’s chances of winning the White House have looked to improve. Market’s don’t like uncertainty Trump represents, and Clinton and her policies are seen as closer to the status quo. Trump has said he would erect trade barriers between China and Mexico that some believe could slow the global economy, if not push it into recession.
Many believe that Trump’s policies could be the most damaging for the Mexican economy, which is why the peso has become a bellwether for his candidacy. The value of the peso dropped in the late summer and early fall as Trump’s poll numbers neared Clinton. The value of the peso has mostly climbed since the first debate.
On Sunday evening, the Mexican currency stood at 18.99 pesos to the dollar, up 0.31 pesos from where the currency began trading overnight.