• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Millennials say they’ll refuse to care for aging boomer parents—but they’ll be forced to as their inheritance shrinks to 40 cents on the dollar

2

The rise of 'conspicuous waiting': The 19th-century economic theory that explains why Gen Z posts their place in line

3

Jensen Huang says ‘a lot’ of six-figure jobs in plumbing and construction will soon be unlocked because someone needs to build new AI centers

1

Millennials say they’ll refuse to care for aging boomer parents—but they’ll be forced to as their inheritance shrinks to 40 cents on the dollar

2

The rise of 'conspicuous waiting': The 19th-century economic theory that explains why Gen Z posts their place in line

3

Jensen Huang says ‘a lot’ of six-figure jobs in plumbing and construction will soon be unlocked because someone needs to build new AI centers
Commentary

Trump’s and Clinton’s Defense Policies Are Pricier Than Obama’s

By
Mark Cancian
Mark Cancian
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Mark Cancian
Mark Cancian
Down Arrow Button Icon
September 26, 2016, 8:00 PM ET
Republican U.S. presidential nominee Donald Trump shakes hands with Democratic U.S. presidential nominee Hillary Clinton at the conclusion of their first presidential debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead
Republican U.S. presidential nominee Donald Trump shakes hands with Democratic U.S. presidential nominee Hillary Clinton at the conclusion of their first presidential debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, U.S., September 26, 2016. REUTERS/Mike Segar - RTSPKPOMike Segar—Reuters
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

As the presidential campaign moves into its final two months, the defense programs of both candidates are coming under heavier scrutiny. Hillary Clinton is long on forceful rhetoric, but short on details. Donald Trump, whose comments about the military and foreign policy during the primary season alarmed the defense community daily, recently put forward a defense program with specific proposals.

Ironically, although Trump and Clinton attack each other vigorously, they say many of the same things about national security. Both would emphasize diplomacy; move aggressively to defeat the Islamic State; build a strong military while increasing innovation and reducing waste; care for veterans, military personnel, and military families; and prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons.

These are all worthy goals, but what do they mean for the specifics of a defense program?

In Trump’s case, the plan he announced on September 7 fits mostly within mainstream Republican thinking on military policy. He is calling for 90,000 additional active-duty Army soldiers, 42 more Navy ships, 100 more modern fighter aircraft, and increased nuclear and missile defense capabilities. Some of these goals cannot be achieved for years—ships, especially carriers, take a long time to build—and the force increases are imbalanced—all for expensive active-duty troops and none for less expensive National Guard and reserves. Most striking, however, is that Trump’s proposed forces do not seem to be aligned with his defense strategy. Trump has talked extensively about placing more responsibility on American allies, refraining from nation-building, and keeping U.S. forces at home. Yet the force structure he describes is more appropriate for a military that is forward deployed and engaged with allies around the globe.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies, where I work, has a budget tool that estimates Trump’s proposals to cost about $640 billion per year, about $80 billion above what President Obama has projected for the next few years. While this is a lot of money, it’s only half the size of the Reagan administration build-up in the 1980s and an increased burden of about 0.5% of GDP, roughly 3% to 3.5% below defense budgets of the 2000s and far below the level of the Cold War.

Clinton portrays herself as a tougher version of Obama, arguing that she would be more aggressive with Russia and the Islamic State. But unlike Trump, she has not made specific proposals about a defense program. Instead, she has called for a commission to assess strategy and resources. Although many national security commissions have been convened in Washington over the years to advise presidential policies, there is really no precedent for an administration deferring its national security strategy to an outside body. On the other hand, a commission might offer the opportunity to forge a bipartisan consensus on national security resources and programs.

Clinton’s national security policy is more expansive than Trump’s, including climate change, education, domestic infrastructure, women’s empowerment, eliminating income inequality, and fighting discrimination. It would not be surprising, then, to find a Clinton Defense Department becoming more involved in these activities and perhaps even funding them. With regard to military personnel, Clinton focuses on classic family issues like daycare, jobs for military spouses, and children’s education. On missile defense, Clinton highlights the value of regional systems, which protect allies and U.S. forces overseas, but not national systems, which protect the U.S. homeland but which many Democrats have criticized as expensive and unreliable.

So although it is not possible to put a cost on a Clinton program yet, implementing the tougher foreign policy she describes would require forces and programs, and hence a budget, at least as large as what Obama has proposed. Indeed, many think tanks and commentators, myself included, have argued that even Obama’s less aggressive strategy is underfunded, so Clinton would likely need more money.

 

Trump’s plan is likely more expensive than Clinton’s, but both are theoretically affordable. The crucial question, though, is how the candidates plan to pay for them. Standing in the way are their other expensive promises. Trump, for example, has promised extensive tax cuts, while Clinton has promised expanded domestic spending and new entitlements. Both have made nods to getting more money, Trump through efficiencies and Clinton through taxes on the wealthy. But neither proposal is large or specific enough to produce the necessary funds.

The politics of budgeting are tricky as well. Democrats want any defense increases matched by increases in domestic budget programs, and the Republican Freedom Caucus opposes any budget increases.

But even without these additional costs, the long-term budget outlook is concerning. The Congressional Budget Office forecasts that with existing laws and policies, the deficit will grow from $540 billion in 2016 to $810 billion in 2020 and $1.4 trillion in 2036. Soon after the new president takes office, these harsh budget realities will collide with campaign promises. Then the real decision-making will begin.

Mark Cancian is a senior adviser with the international security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

About the Author
By Mark Cancian
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Commentary

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • TikTok icon
  • YouTube icon

Latest in Commentary

250
Commentary250 Years of Innovation
America bet everything on trust 250 years ago. That bet is being tested again
By Keith KrachAugust 1, 2026
7 hours ago
Asia’s aging population doesn’t have to be a fiscal burden. With smart planning, it can be a growth opportunity
Commentaryaging
Asia’s aging population doesn’t have to be a fiscal burden. With smart planning, it can be a growth opportunity
By Runchana Pongsaparn and Koon Hui TeeJuly 31, 2026
22 hours ago
saunders
Commentarydisruption
Bausch & Lomb CEO: the AI hysteria is nothing new
By Brent SaundersJuly 31, 2026
1 day ago
zelter
CommentaryInfrastructure
Apollo President: America’s industrial comeback requires  a new financial playbook and a fatter checkbook
By Jim ZelterJuly 31, 2026
1 day ago
trader
CommentaryMarkets
The rise of financial nihilism in retail traders
By Derek HorstmeyerJuly 31, 2026
1 day ago
Asia drives 60% of global growth, but the region’s CEOs can’t escape geopolitics. Here’s how they can stay competitive
Commentarygeopolitics
Asia drives 60% of global growth, but the region’s CEOs can’t escape geopolitics. Here’s how they can stay competitive
By Yasushi SasakiJuly 30, 2026
2 days ago

Most Popular

Millennials say they’ll refuse to care for aging boomer parents—but they’ll be forced to as their inheritance shrinks to 40 cents on the dollar
Personal Finance
Millennials say they’ll refuse to care for aging boomer parents—but they’ll be forced to as their inheritance shrinks to 40 cents on the dollar
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 31, 2026
1 day ago
The rise of 'conspicuous waiting': The 19th-century economic theory that explains why Gen Z posts their place in line
Retail
The rise of 'conspicuous waiting': The 19th-century economic theory that explains why Gen Z posts their place in line
By Tatiana SatauaJuly 31, 2026
1 day ago
Jensen Huang says ‘a lot’ of six-figure jobs in plumbing and construction will soon be unlocked because someone needs to build new AI centers
Success
Jensen Huang says ‘a lot’ of six-figure jobs in plumbing and construction will soon be unlocked because someone needs to build new AI centers
By Preston ForeAugust 1, 2026
5 hours ago
'Retiring backwards': How cold economic reality forced Gen X into something like the reverse of baby boomers' golden years
Success
'Retiring backwards': How cold economic reality forced Gen X into something like the reverse of baby boomers' golden years
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 31, 2026
1 day ago
Jensen Huang says this is the greatest time in history to start a business—and his advice is to stop overthinking it: 'How hard can it be?’
Success
Jensen Huang says this is the greatest time in history to start a business—and his advice is to stop overthinking it: 'How hard can it be?’
By Preston ForeJuly 31, 2026
1 day ago
Tim Cook signed off on his final Apple earnings call with a warning about a ‘100-year flood’ in memory chip pricing
Big Tech
Tim Cook signed off on his final Apple earnings call with a warning about a ‘100-year flood’ in memory chip pricing
By Alexei OreskovicJuly 30, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.